Masters Of War

Come you masters of war You that build all the guns You that build the death planes You that build all the bombs You that hide behind walls You that hide behind desks I just want you to know I can see through your masks. You that never done nothin' But build to destroy You play with my world Like it's your little toy You put a gun in my hand And you hide from my eyes And you turn and run farther When the fast bullets fly. Like Judas of old You lie and deceive A world war can be won You want me to believe But I see through your eyes And I see through your brain Like I see through the water That runs down my drain. You fasten all the triggers For the others to fire Then you set back and watch When the death count gets higher You hide in your mansion' As young people's blood Flows out of their bodies And is buried in the mud. You've thrown the worst fear That can ever be hurled Fear to bring children Into the world For threatening my baby Unborn and unnamed You ain't worth the blood That runs in your veins. How much do I know To talk out of turn You might say that I'm young You might say I'm unlearned But there's one thing I know Though I'm younger than you That even Jesus would never Forgive what you do. Let me ask you one question Is your money that good Will it buy you forgiveness Do you think that it could I think you will find When your death takes its toll All the money you made Will never buy back your soul. And I hope that you die And your death'll come soon I will follow your casket In the pale afternoon And I'll watch while you're lowered Down to your deathbed And I'll stand over your grave 'Til I'm sure that you're dead.------- Bob Dylan 1963

Sunday, June 26, 2016

oil crashes on Brexit, Ohio output data, oil imports at a 42 month high, record gasoline output & usage, etal

oil prices crashed along with global financial markets on Friday following the British vote on Thursday to exit the European Union (widely referred to as "Brexit"), which is widely expected to precipitate a period of political instability in Europe...Conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had campaigned for remaining in the EU, submitted his resignation; British Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn also faces a no-confidence vote, as both major parties had campaigned to remain in the EU...in response to the British vote, populist parties on the left and right across Europe are calling for referendums in their own countries, with speculation that France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Hungary might also vote to leave the EU, effectively rebalkanizing the continent....although markets in the US and Britain recovered to end down less than 4%, European markets were hit the hardest, with German and French indexes down 7% and 8% respectively and markets in the southern tier of European countries down as much as 15%...however, since it isn't our purpose here to discuss European markets or politics, we'll refer you to Brexit: What Happens Now? from the BBC for a discussion of what steps the British might take next, and to Brexit: Pulling the Signal Out of the Noise from Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism, who entertains possibilities outside of the most obvious, and who also includes exit polling results...Yves includes graphics from "Lord Ashcroft Polls How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday... and why" which are better viewed on the original site, where there are also several more graphics detailing the demographics and the politics of the British vote...for our purposes, we'll start with a look at how oil prices reacted to this political upheaval...

June 24 2016 hourly oil prices

the above graph comes from FXCM, a mostly foreign exchange (forex) online trading website, and it shows the prices that US WTI crude exchanged at through their online exchange, every hour, 24 hours a day, over the last 5 days...since they're providing the trading service, the prices shown aren't to the penny the same as those seen at the NYMEX, but they track them pretty closely (otherwise traders would play one exchange against the other), and they also trade oil after the regular exchanges are closed...in this candlestick style graph, there's a red or green bar for every hour over this period, and each bar shows the price of oil at the start and end of the hour indicated; when the price of oil went down in the given hour, the bar is red, and when the price closed higher at the end of the hour, the bar is green...note that most of these red and green "candlesticks" also have light grey "wicks" on either end, which represent the range of prices outside of the beginning and ending price that oil traded at over that one hour period...thus we can see that oil prices rose as high as $50.50 a barrel on Wednesday morning, and topped $50 a barrel again late Thursday, before the first results from the British voting came in...as the vote results became clear, oil prices then fell more than 6% over the next 6 hours, trading below $47 a barrel for a short period before buying resumed, which pushed the price back up to $48...oil then traded in a range between $47.30 to $48.40 a barrel the rest of Friday, and ended the period shown here at $47.58 a barrel (this graph is from Friday midnight, thus including after hours online trading; oil officially closed the week at $47.64 a barrel on the NY Mercantile Exchange) 

it's important to recognize that there was no fundamental change in the supply of or the demand for oil and its products that drove that price change, or a similar drop in the price of the international benchmark Brent oil over the same period...those with cars in Great Britain and Europe will be driving them next week as they were the week before this vote, and European industries consuming petrochemicals will continue to operate...it may even take a year or two before the political ramifications of Thursday's vote are sorted out, much less begin to affect the economies in those countries...with this crash as a backdrop, however, the coming week will likely be telling a tale about the ultimate trajectory of oil prices for the months to come; if oil prices stay at these levels or even drift lower, it will be a pretty strong indication that the $50 a barrel level will be the limiting price for some time to come; however, if oil prices recover from these losses and push back over $50 a barrel again, then they've beaten the panic that caused this week's price crash, and might well move higher the rest of the summer, even as US drilling activity resumes...

Ohio’s Oil and Natural Gas Production, 1st Quarter 2016

on Friday of last week (June 17th), the ODNR released the 1st quarter oil and gas production report for Ohio's horizontal shale wells; the complete spreadsheet with details on oil, natural gas and brine output for each of the 1,302 Ohio wells that reported production in the quarter is here (Excel file)... checking for producing shale wells in nearby counties, we find there are 4 in Portage country, 4 in Trumbull, and 8 in Mahoning, with none in Ashtabula, Lake, Geauga, Cuyahoga, or Summit...more importantly, at a time when we know that production from other shale formations nationally has been going down, Ohio's production of oil & gas is dramatically higher...oil production in the 1st quarter of 2016 amounted to 5,485,854 barrels, 24% more than the 4,432,188 barrels Ohio produced in the first quarter of 2015...meanwhile, Ohio's output of natural gas totaled 329,537,838 mcf (thousand cubic feet) in the first quarter of this year; that was 80% more than was produced during the first quarter of 2015...those increases have occurred even as drilling operations in the state have been cut by 2/3rds ...Ohio averaged 45 rigs operating in the state in January of 2015; that fell to average 31 rigs by March of that year...in 2016, we started the year with just 14 rigs operating, and that fell to 10 by the end of March...that fits the description of Utica output as described by drillers at the annual Developing Unconventionals conference in downtown Pittsburgh this week, where the drillers were saying that one deep Utica shale well has the potential to produce as much natural gas as three wells drilled into the Marcellus layer above it...

if you recall when we looked at the new maps of the Utica shale from the EIA in early May, they indicated that the largest number of Utica wells in Ohio had been drilled in Columbiana, Carroll, and Harrison counties; or around the point where West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio meet, where the Ohio river becomes the southeast border of the state; that drilling was primarily done by Chesapeake when it was being run by Aubrey McClendon, and Chesapeake still leads Ohio with 614 producing wells in the state…however. this report indicates that 9 out the 1st quarter's top ten gas producing wells were located in Belmont county, just to the south of those three counties...indeed, even as Carroll county with 429 wells still has the most producing wells in any county in Ohio, their gas production was at 56,741,243 mcf in the 1st quarter, 43% less than the 99,235,384 mcf of natural gas produced in Belmont county, which has just 175 wells...that's enabled Gulfport Energy, which has focused on Belmont county, to approach the production levels of Chesapeake....and now Monroe county, with just 136 wells, has moved up to the 2nd most productive county in the state, as they produced 63,316,436 mcf of natural gas during the first quarter...Pennsylvania's Consol Energy, which used to be called Consolidated Coal, has sold off it's remaining coal mines in West Virginia and now intends to focus on drilling for gas on their acreage in Monroe County, all of which tells us that the most productive areas of the Utica are turning out to be to the south of those counties where drilling has been concentrated in recent years..

The Latest Oil Stats from the EIA

this week's oil data from the US Energy Information Administration indicated another drop in our production of crude oil, a spike in our oil imports, an increase in refining to near seasonally normal levels, and record levels of both gasoline production and gasoline consumption... however, the crude oil fudge factor included on the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet (line 13) was a minus 253,000 barrels per day, which means that 253,000 barrels of oil per day that we appeared to have produced or imported last week did not show up in the final consumption or inventory figures...that follows an adjustment of +335,000 barrels per day during the prior week, a swing of 588,000 barrels per day, which is certainly enough to call into question most of the weekly changes we'll review today...

in the stat which varies the least, and is hence probably the most accurate estimate, the EIA reported that our field production of crude oil fell by 39,000 barrels per day, from an average of 8,716,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 10th to an average of 8,677,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 17th...that was our lowest oil output since the 1st week of September 2014 and 9.7% lower than the 9,604,000 barrels we produced during the week ending June 19th last year, which week was close to the record 9,610,000 barrel per day oil production that we saw during the week ending June 5th of 2015...our oil production has now been down 19 out of the last 21 weeks and is 542,000 barrels per day lower than we were producing at the beginning of this year...

at the same time, our imports of crude oil jumped by 817,000 barrels per day to average 8,439,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 17th, up from the average of 7,622,000 barrels per day we were importing during the week ending June 10th....that topped this year's previous high of 8,384,000 barrels per day that we imported during the week ending March 18th and was the most oil we've imported in any week since the week ending December 7th of 2012....while this week's imports were 24.7% more than the 6,765,000 barrels of oil per day we imported during the week ending June 19th a year ago, oil imports are typically volatile week to week, so the EIA's weekly Petroleum Status Report (62 pp pdf) reports imports as a 4 week moving average...that metric showed that the 4 week average of our imports has now risen to the 7.9 million barrel per day level, which is 13.6% above the same four-week period last year... .. 

meanwhile, U.S. refineries’ crude oil usage averaged 16,505,000 barrels of per day barrels during the week ending June 17th, which was 188,000 barrels per day more than the 16,317,000 barrels of crude per day they processed during the week ending June 10th, as the US refinery utilization rate rose to 91.3% during the week, from 90.2% of capacity the prior week...this week's crude usage was just a small fraction lower than the 16,532,000 barrels per day US refineries used during the week ending June 19th last year, when US refineries were operating at 94.0% of capacity...

with more oil being refined, our refinery production of gasoline rose by 582,000 barrels per day, as gasoline output averaged 10,289,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 17th, which was up from the average of 9,707,000 barrels per day of gasoline produced during the week ending June 10th and a new all time weekly high for US gasoline production...that was also 3.6% more than the 9,934,000 barrels of gasoline per day we were producing during the same week last year...however, our refinery output of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) slipped at the same time, falling by 28,000 barrels per day to 4,956,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 17th...that was also 14,000 barrels per day below our distillates production of 4,970,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 19th of last year, when distillates inventories were quite a bit tighter than today...       

with the record output of gasoline, our gasoline inventories rose by 627,000 barrels to 237,631,000 barrels as of June 17th, the second small increase in the past 3 weeks, at a time of year when our gasoline supplies are usually being used up....that was as the amount of gasoline supplied to US markets rose by 53,000 barrels per day to 9,815,000 barrels per day, 1.7% higher than the 9,655,000 barrel per day consumption during the week ending June 19th last year, and a new record for US gasoline consumption...also adding to gasoline inventories was a 129,000 barrel per day jump in our gasoline imports to 876,000 barrels per day, which were still lower than the 896,000 barrels of gasoline we imported during the same week a year earlier...as a result, this week's gasoline inventories were 8.8% higher than the 218,494,000 barrels of gasoline that we had stored on June 19th last year, and 10.5% higher than the 214,977,000 barrels of gasoline we had stored on June 20th of 2014... thus our gasoline supplies are still categorized by the EIA as "well above the upper limit of the average range" for this time of year..  

at the same time, our distillate fuel inventories also rose by a nominal 151,000 barrels to end the week at 152,314,000 barrels, as distillates were added to storage on the east and west coasts and withdrawn elsewhere...since our distillate inventories have been well above normal since the El Nino winter reduced US heat oil consumption, our distillate inventories are still 12.5% higher than the 135,428,000 barrels of distillates we had stored at the same weekend last year, and 26.3% higher than our distillates supplies as of June 20th 2014, and thus they're also characterized as "well above the upper limit of the average range" for this time of year...  

finally, even with the disappearance of 253,000 barrels per day in this week's EIA data, that big spike in imports limited our withdrawal of oil from our stocks of crude oil in storage to 917,000 barrels, under a million for the 2nd week in a row, at a time of year when are stored supplies of oil are usually being used up twice as fast....thus our oil inventory level of 531,543,000 barrels on June 17th was 14.6% higher than the 462,993,000 barrels of oil we had stored as of June 19th, 2015, and 36.7% higher than the 388,090,000 barrels of oil we had stored on June 20th of 2014...with our oil inventories continuing that much higher than the seasonal records we set every week in 2015, it goes without saying that our crude oil supplies are also  "well above the upper limit of the average range" for this time of year..." 

This Week's Rig Count

drilling activity slowed this week for the first time in four weeks as oil drillers pulled back while gas drilling expanded for the 3rd week in a row.....Baker Hughes reported that the total count of active rotary rigs running in the US fell by 3 rigs to 421 rigs as of June 24th, which was also down from the 868 rigs that were working as of the June 26th report last year, and down from the recent high of 1929 rigs that were in use the week before the OPEC meeting on Thanksgiving 2014...the number of rigs drilling for oil fell by 7 rigs to 330, which was also down from the 628 oil directed rigs that were in use a year earlier, and down from the recent high of 1609 oil rigs that were working on October 10, 2014, while the count of drilling rigs targeting natural gas formations rose by 5 rigs to 90, up from the record low of 82 three weeks ago, but down from the 228 natural gas rigs that were in use a year ago, and down from the recent high of 1,606 rigs that were drilling for natural gas on August 29th, 2008...there was also still one rig running this week that was classified as miscellaneous, unchanged from last week but down from the 3 miscellaneous rigs that were operating a year ago....

of the net change in drilling, rigs that had been drilling both offshore and on inland waters were shut down this week...a drilling platform that had been deployed in the Gulf of Mexico offshore of Louisiana was taken out of service this week, which cut the Gulf of Mexico active rig count down to 20 rigs, which was down from 28 a year ago...that also reduced the total offshore count down to 21, as there still is an offshore platform working off the Cook Inlet in Alaska....at the same time, there were two rigs removed that had been drilling through inland lakes in southern Louisiana, which cut the inland waters rig count down to 3, which was down from the 7 rigs that were deployed drilling on inland waters at the end of the same week last year... 

the number of working horizontal drilling rigs decreased for the first time in four weeks, as their count fell by 1 to 325 rigs this week, which was also down from the 654 horizontal rigs that were in use on June 26th of last year, and down from the record of 1372 horizontal rigs that were in use on November 21st of 2014...at the same time, a net of two directional rigs were also pulled down, leaving 43 directional rigs still working, which was down from the 98 directional rigs that were drilling at this time last year....meanwhile, the vertical rig count was unchanged at 53 rigs, which was still down from the 107 vertical rigs that were drilling in the US during the same week last year...     

for the details on which states and which shale basins saw changes in drilling activity this past week, we will again include a screenshot of that part of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes, which shows those changes...the first table below shows weekly and annual rig count changes by state, and the second table shows weekly and annual rig count changes for the major US oil and gas basins...in both tables, the first column shows the active rig count for each state or basin as of June 24th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs from the prior week, the third column shows last weeks rig count, the 4th column shows the change in the number of rigs running from  the same week a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that week a year ago, which in this case was June 26th of 2015: :

June 24 2016 rig count summary

from this we see that Louisiana, where 5 rigs were shut down, was the big winner this week, as not only did they see the offshore and inland waters drilling rigs shut down, but they also saw 2 land based rigs in the southern part of the state idled...Oklahoma saw 4 rigs shut down, and it's clear from the basin count table that 3 of those had been working in the Cana Woodford and another was in the Ardmore Woodford...on the other hand, Texas had a net of 3 rigs added this week, the 4th week in a row they led those states increasing their activity...over the month of June, the Texas rig count has climbed from 176 to 194, thus accounting for the entirety of the national increase in the rig count from the record low of 404 rigs active that we saw during the weeks ending May 20th and May 27th...



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