Masters Of War

Come you masters of war You that build all the guns You that build the death planes You that build all the bombs You that hide behind walls You that hide behind desks I just want you to know I can see through your masks. You that never done nothin' But build to destroy You play with my world Like it's your little toy You put a gun in my hand And you hide from my eyes And you turn and run farther When the fast bullets fly. Like Judas of old You lie and deceive A world war can be won You want me to believe But I see through your eyes And I see through your brain Like I see through the water That runs down my drain. You fasten all the triggers For the others to fire Then you set back and watch When the death count gets higher You hide in your mansion' As young people's blood Flows out of their bodies And is buried in the mud. You've thrown the worst fear That can ever be hurled Fear to bring children Into the world For threatening my baby Unborn and unnamed You ain't worth the blood That runs in your veins. How much do I know To talk out of turn You might say that I'm young You might say I'm unlearned But there's one thing I know Though I'm younger than you That even Jesus would never Forgive what you do. Let me ask you one question Is your money that good Will it buy you forgiveness Do you think that it could I think you will find When your death takes its toll All the money you made Will never buy back your soul. And I hope that you die And your death'll come soon I will follow your casket In the pale afternoon And I'll watch while you're lowered Down to your deathbed And I'll stand over your grave 'Til I'm sure that you're dead.------- Bob Dylan 1963

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Utica productivity tripled in 2 years, gasoline supplies at a summer high, oil drilling jumps most in 79 months

oil prices continued to erode this week as traders and the media continued to focus on the increasing glut of refined products...after closing at $45.24 a barrel on Monday, down from last Friday's $45.95, oil fell again late Tuesday to close at $44.65 a barrel after the American Petroleum Institute's estimates showed an unexpected increase in gasoline supplies.....prices steadied on Wednesday when the EIA confirmed that gasoline inventory increase, but also showed the ninth consecutive weekly crude drawdown as trading for August oil expired....prices then sank to close at $44.75 a barrel on Thursday in a delayed reaction to the EIA report, which also showed the combination of oil and product stockpiles at a new all-time high...oil then traded below $44 a barrel on Friday as the media picked up on the gasoline glut story, and stayed depressed Friday afternoon to close at $44.19 a barrel, after the rig count report showed the largest percentage increase in oil drilling rigs since December 2009...since it's probably easier to look at a picture of how oil prices have slumped than to read text, we'll include a graph of the daily price changes over the past three months below...

July 23 2016 oil prices

this graph now shows daily prices per barrel over the past 3 months for the September contract of the US benchmark oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI)...since this graph only shows prices for September delivery, the earlier prices quoted for the expired August contract are not shown, but the trajectory has been the same...it appears that the springtime oil price rally, which saw oil prices nearly double from near $26 a barrel in late February to over $50 a barrel by early June, is now over, having succumbed to the British vote to exit the European Union, which broke the three month uptrend...

July Drilling Productivity Report

in a report of interest to us in Ohio, this week the EIA released the Drilling Productivity Report for July, which estimates the output of oil and gas per working rig from the seven major US shale basins, including the Utica shale, and projects output for the next month, based on their recent data from existing oil and natural gas wells...note that this report does not distinguish between oil-directed rigs and gas-directed rigs, because more than half of the existing wells produce both oil and gas, irregardless of the targeted formation...we'll start with the summary table of drilling production projections by region, which is from under Tab 2 on the web landing page for the report (note that the report itself is a series of pdfs linked to on the sidebar, under "contents")

July 2016 drilling productivity by region

the above table shows the expected output of oil and natural gas for July and August for the 7 major shale basins, which together account for 92% of US shale output... oil in thousands of barrels per day is shown in the 3 columns on the left, while projections for natural gas in million cubic feet per day is shown in the three columns to the right...note the change columns in each case is in units, not percent, and thus total oil production in most basins other than the Permian is expected to fall on the order of 4%, while the percentage drop in total US production of natural gas is primarily from the Eagle Ford and Niobrara (map from the report of all 7 regions is here)

the next table, from under Tab 1 of the report, shows the drilling productivity for new wells on a per rig basis...the EIA estimates new-well production per rig using several months of recent data on total production from new wells for each field, divided by the region's monthly rig count....here, in all regions, drilling productivity for new wells is still expected to increase monthly from July to August, as it has over the history of fracking extraction...

July 2016 drilling productivity report

the next two graphs, from the Year-over-year summary (pdf), show the expected drop in August production from old wells, as compared to the decrease from old wells in August a year ago...in general, these graphs shows us the expected well depletion rate for the existing wells in each basin...

July 2016 legacy oil production

above is the expected decrease in thousands of barrels per day for the wells currently producing oil in each basin...again, since this is in units of decrease, rather than percentage, it tells us the obvious, that those basins with the largest amount of current production will see the largest decreases...anyone who wants to work out the percentage declines for each basin based on our first table can do so....what is noteworthy here is that for the most part, the decreases going forward will be less than in 2015, because of the larger percentage of old wells which deplete somewhat slower...the Utica, with a large percentage of relatively newer wells, is the only basin where the August 2016 oil depletion rate is expected to be greater than that of last year

July 2016 legacy natural gas production

like the oil graph, the natural gas bar graph above shows us the expected August decrease in million cubic feet per day for the wells currently producing gas in each basin, against the similar decrease in August 2015...once again, for most basins, the decreases in natural gas output going forward will be less than they were in 2015, because of the larger percentage of old wells..the exceptions are again the Utica, with it's larger percentage of newer wells, and the Permian, which has been producing more natural gas recently than it had in the legacy years...

the next two graphs we'll include are for oil and natural gas productivity for new Utica wells...once again, the EIA is estimating August output from new wells based on recent historical data on total production from new wells divided by the region's average monthly rig count, lagged by two months...in this first graph below, the total Utica rig count since 2007 is shown in black, while the output of oil per rig from new wells is shown as a brown graph over that same span...

July 2016 Utica oil productivity EIA

in the second graph of this set below, the total Utica rig count is again shown in black, while the output of natural gas from new wells per rig in thousand cubic feet per day in shown in blue...now, look closely as those productivity lines, brown above for oil and blue below for natural gas...we can see that oil output per new Utica well has quadrupled from under 100 barrels per day to nearly 400 barrels per day in the short span from mid 2014 to mid 2016...similarly, natural gas output per new Utica well has tripled, from 2,500,000 cubic feet per day to 7,500,000 cubic feet per day over the same 2 year span (after it had quadrupled in the prior two years, so there's been a twelve-fold increase per new well in 4 years)...also notice that neither the brown line for oil nor the blue line for natural gas shows any sign of topping out, ie, if the trend continues, we might even expect another tripling two years hence...so, why such a exponentially increasing rate of productivity? in part, it’s because the frackers are getting better at what they do; ie, their fracking techniques have improved...but another big factor is that with prices depressed, they're no longer fracking half the state willy-nilly, like Chesapeake did during the McClendon era...they are only fracking in those locations where they believe that profitable production is pretty much a sure thing, and hence they're now producing as much gas and oil from new wells running a dozen rigs than McClendon & his boys did two years ago with 4 dozen rigs..

July 2016 Utica nat gas productivity EIA

The Latest Oil Stats from the EIA

Wednesday's release of US oil data for the week ending July 15th by the Energy Information Administration indicated that our oil imports rebounded back to above recent averages, that our refineries ramped back up to seasonal levels to use all those extra imports, and as a result another small portion of our monstrous glut of crude oil was converted into a glut of refined products...our caveat for this review is that this week's crude oil fudge factor included to make the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet (line 13) balance out was +498,000 barrels per day, which meant that 498,000 more barrels per day showed up in our final consumption and inventory figures this week than were accounted for by our production and import figures, meaning one or several of this week's metrics were incorrect by that amount, errors which are typically due to inadequacies in gathering or reporting that data...that makes for the 4th week in a row when we've seen a large positive adjustment, and as a result this year's cumulative daily average of that weekly statistical adjustment has also turned positive by 18,000 barrels per day, after several months of being negative...during most of the weeks earlier this year, much of what we appeared to have produced or imported did not show up in the final consumption or inventory figures, and that statistical aberration has now completely reversed..

our field production of crude oil inched up for the 2nd week in a row, as oil output from US wells rose by 9,000 barrels per day to an average of 8,494,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 15th....again, like last week, the entirety of the increase resulted from a 38,000 barrel per day increase from Alaska, while production in the lower 48 was down 29,000 barrels per day....even with the back to back increases, our oil output still remained 725,000 barrels per day below the pace we saw at the beginning of this year, and was still 11.1% lower than the 9,562,000 barrels we produced during the week ending July 17th of 2015, and 11.6% lower than the record 9,610,000 barrel per day oil production that we saw during the week ending June 5th last year...

at the same time, the EIA reported that our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 293,000 barrels per day to an average of 8,134,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 15th, nearly a million barrels per day, or nearly 13% more than the 7,199,000 barrels of oil per day we were importing during the week ending July 17th a year ago...at the same time, the 4 week average of our imports reported by the EIA's weekly Petroleum Status Report (62 pp pdf) actually slipped back to an 8.0 million barrel per day level, which was only 5.9% higher than during the same four-week period last year...   

meanwhile, usage of that crude oil by U.S. refineries rose by 319,000 barrels per day from the prior week during the week ending July 15th, as the US refinery utilization rate rose to 93.2% during the week, up from 92.3% of capacity during the week ending July 8th...this week’s refinery throughput was virtually unchanged from the 16,870,000 barrels per day US refineries used during the week ending July 17th last year, however, when US refineries were operating at 95.5% of capacity..

even with the increase in refining, however, our refineries’ production of gasoline fell back from the elevated levels of last week, dropping by 168,000 barrels per day to an average of 10,050,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 15th...that was 0.6% lower than the 10,109,000 barrels per day of gasoline produced in the same week last year, but about 2% higher than last July's average output...at the same time, refinery output of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) also slipped, falling by 30,000 barrels per day to 5,004,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 15th....that also put distillates output 1.4% below the 5,073,000 barrels per day that was being refined the same week last year, which was on a par with distillates output for that month...it's a bit puzzling to see output of both gasoline and distillates down with such a large increase in refinery inputs, but i see no easy explanation; production of propane/propylene was up by 55,000 barrels per day to 1,734,000 barrels per day, and output of residual fuels was up by 24,000 barrels per day to 413,000 barrels per day, but production of jet fuel was also down, albeit by an insignificant 5,000 barrels per day to 1,722,000 barrels per day...

even with the large drop in our output of gasoline, our gasoline inventories rose again, by 911,000 barrels to 241,000,000 barrels as of July 15th, the fourth increase in the past 5 weeks, at a time of year when our gasoline supplies are usually being used up; in fact, July 15th saw the highest summertime level for gasoline supplies in the EIA's weekly records....contributing to the increase in gasoline inventories was a 57,000 barrel per day increase in our gasoline imports to 897,000 barrels per day, which was also 62,000 barrels per day more than the 815,000 barrels of gasoline we imported during the same week a year earlier....as a result, this week's gasoline inventories were 11.4% higher than the 216,285,000 barrels of gasoline that we had stored on July 17th last year, and also 10.6% higher than the 217,871,000 barrels of gasoline we had stored on July 18th of 2014... thus our gasoline supplies remain categorized by the EIA as "well above the upper limit of the average range" for this time of year..   

at the same time, our distillate fuel inventories fell by 216,000 barrels to 152,783,000 barrels on July 15th, using up a small portion of the 4,058,000 barrel distillates inventory increase to 152,997,000 barrels we saw a week ago...since our distillate inventories have continued to run far above the normal level after the warm winter reduced US heat oil consumption, our distillate inventories as of July 15th were still 8.0% higher than the 141,515,000 barrels of distillates we had stored as of July 17th last year, and 21.3% higher than our distillates supplies as of July 18th 2014, and thus they were again characterized as "well above the upper limit of the average range" for this time of year...    

finally, as our refineries more than kept pace with our increased imports, we again needed to withdraw 2,342,000 more barrels of oil from our stocks of crude in storage to meet the week's need, as thus our crude oil inventories fell to 519,462,000 barrels as of July 15th....but that's a fairly normal withdrawal rate for this time of year, and it left us with 12.0% more oil in storage than the 463,885,000 barrels we had as of the same weekend a year earlier, and 40.0% more oil than we had stored on July 18th of 2014....with our oil supplies thus continuing to beat the seasonal records we set most every week in 2015, it should go without saying that our crude oil supplies also remain "well above the upper limit of the average range" for this time of year..."  

This week's rig counts

US drilling activity increased for the 7th week out of the last 8 during the week ending July 22nd, with oil rigs seeing their largest percentage increase since December 2009, despite the lower prices for crude.....Baker Hughes reported that the total number of active rotary rigs running in the US was up by 15 rigs to 462 rigs as of Friday, which was still down from the 876 rigs that were deployed as of the July 24th report last year, and down from the recent high of 1929 rigs that were in use on November 21st of 2014...the number of rigs drilling for oil this week rose by 14 rigs to 371, which was still down from the 659 oil directed rigs that were in use a year earlier, and down from the recent high of 1609 oil rigs that were drilling on October 10, 2014, while the count of drilling rigs targeting natural gas formations fell by a single rig to 88 this week, which was also down from the 216 natural gas rigs that were drilling a year ago, and down from the recent high of 1,606 rigs that were drilling for natural gas on August 29th, 2008...there were also three rigs drilling this week that were classified as miscellaneous, up by 2 rigs from last week and also up by 2 miscellaneous rigs from the same week a year ago....  

however, despite the large overall increase in drilling, three of the platforms that had been drilling offshore in the Gulf of Mexico were shut down this week, which reduced the Gulf of Mexico active rig count to 18 rigs, down from the 31 rigs working in the Gulf of Mexico a year ago...since there is also an offshore platform still working off the Cook Inlet in Alaska, the total offshore count fell to 19, also down from 31 a year ago....meanwhile, the inland waters rig count was unchanged at 3, down from the 4 rigs that were deployed drilling on inland waters at the end of the same week last year...  

the number of working horizontal drilling rigs also increased for the 7th time in 8 weeks, rising by 13 rigs to 357, which still was down from the 662 horizontal rigs that were in use on July 24th of last year, and down from the record of 1372 horizontal rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014...at the same time, one directional rig and one vertical rigs were also added...that brought the working directional rig count up to 44 rigs, which was still down from the 83 directional rigs that were in use at the end of the same week a year earlier, and brought the vertical rig count up to 61 rigs as of July 22nd, which was nonetheless down from the 131 vertical rigs that were drilling in the US during the same week last year...     

for the details on which states and which shale basins saw changes in drilling activity this past week, we'll again include a screenshot of that part of the rig count summary from Baker Hughes, which shows those changes...the first table below shows weekly and annual rig count changes by state, and the second table shows weekly and annual rig count changes for the major geological oil and gas basins...in both tables, the first column shows the active rig count as of July 22nd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs over the last week, the third column shows the prior week's rig count, the 4th column shows the change in the number of rigs running from the equivalent week in July a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that week a year ago, which in this case was July 24th of 2015:  

July 22 2016 rig count summary

what's immediately obvious from looking at those tables is that the entirely of the jump in drilling activity could be accounted for by the 15 rig increase in Texas, with an increase of 8 rigs in the west Texas Permian basin, 3 more rigs in the Barnett shale near Dallas/Ft Worth, and two additional rigs in the Eagle Ford of the southern part of the state...other states were relatively static, with only California up two rigs to 7 and Louisiana down two rigs to 44 showing a rig count change greater than 1, with the later accounted for by the 3 rig drop in the Gulf of Mexico...not included in the list of major state variances above, Nevada drillers started running a single rig this week, their first since last September, which left them unchanged from the 1 rig they had working a year ago...



note: there's more here...

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