Why Iran vs. Israel rhetoric could escalate into war
The Israeli drumbeat for a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program grew louder this week as former intelligence chief Shabtai Shavit said the Jewish state must not “sit idly and wait until the enemy comes to attack you.”Skip to next paragraph
“Since there is an ongoing war, since the threat is permanent, since the intention of the enemy in this case is to annihilate you, the right doctrine is one of preemption and not of retaliation,” Mr. Shavit told a conference at the hawkish Bar Ilan University on Monday.
Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran have long been arch-foes. But these enemies have grown in their ignorance, misperceptions, and demonization of each other – and have thereby dangerously raised the risk of escalation to direct conflict, analysts say. That has raised jitters in Washington, with Israel’s closest ally warning against a unilateral attack that would inevitably draw in US forces already overstretched in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“The real fear is that someone will get carried away by his own rhetoric and fear-mongering,” says Martin Van Creveld, a military historian at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. “But if you are going to get anything out of this, you have to make the impression that this [first-strike] is not impossible. You can’t take the option off the table. Why should you?”
'The rhetoric .. can just become reality'
Israel’s overall political shift to the right means comments such as Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s recent statement that Iran currently “does not pose an existential threat” are increasingly rare.
“When you have that kind of political environment, you are leaving yourself no space to find another solution,” says Trita Parsi, a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “You may very well end up in a situation where you are propelled to act, even though you understand it is an unwise action, but [do so] for political reasons.”
Haggai Ram, an Iran specialist at the Ben Gurion University of the Negev, agrees.
“Being a historian, I know how things get out of control, how all of a sudden there is a dynamic you can’t control and you find yourself in a war,” says Dr. Ram. “The rhetoric from both sides, because it is so intensive, and involves so many emotions ... can just become reality.”
A number of Israeli experts on Iran reckon the actual threat from Tehran is limited – even non-existent – “but nobody ever listens to them; you don’t see them in the headlines,” says Dr. Van Creveld. “Most Israelis – because they are really afraid, or as a matter of policy – reinforce each others’ fears.”
Those fears have been near the top of Israel’s strategic calculations for many years, and often rank higher than ongoing conflict with Palestinians, and the Iran- and Syria-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Top Israeli officials say that Iran’s nuclear program – which Tehran says is for peaceful energy production – presents an “existential” threat.
The result is skewed calculations, analysts say, that could inadvertently lead to war.
“Since the mid-1990s, there has been a policy of seeking to portray Iran as a very significant threat to the region and the world, partly to motivate the West – particularly the US – to take a hard line against Iran,” says Dr. Parsi.
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War is long in the plans and will not be averted period: There will never be peace in the Middle East, period! Only the US wants it, Israel wants it her way and Iran/Syria want Israel obliterated, period.
Israel and Iran have long been in preparation for this confrontation. As you know, when asked by a journalist how he felt upon returning to Iran in 1979 after 15 years in exile.
Khomeini’s curt, one-word reply was “nothing” Whoa! From day one of his return to Iran Khomeini expressed no love for Iran only a love of the atom bomb. The drive even then was to possess a nuclear weapon though that desire is still denied until Iran can get their hands on one.
I have tried to give Iran the benefit of the doubt when they say their nuclear desires are peaceful knowing they could use nuclear power as an energy source for their growing population. I have always asserted that perceived need could be cover for the real goal of developing a nuclear weapon.
The nuclear program of Iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the Atoms for Peace program. The support, encouragement and participation of the United States and Western European governments in Iran's nuclear program continued until the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the Shah of Iran. We are so concerned about Pakistan and Iran today in regard to nuclear abilities and nuclear weapons and security. I was blown away to find out that we built the first nuclear Reactors in both Iran and Pakistan. Nuclear program of Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia atoms for peace
I would have to assume this was after we overthrew the democratically elected President of Iran Mohammad Mosaddeq to install our ruthless puppet the Shah of Iran. We built and supplied Iran's first reactor because we thought we were in control. What the hell is wrong with us? That makes us personally responsible for the 1979 Revolution in Iran, the capture of our hostages, the disaster in the desert after a failed attempt to rescue them, the rise of the Revolutionary Guard, the protesters dilemma, the nuclear issue in Iran today, everything!
I had to break that up into 3 parts it was too long. Here's the last I hope, sorry! You know, I have long said that Iran’s civilian nuclear program is a cover for their nuclear weapons program. Now I see that Arab leaders feel the same way. They fear a nuclear arms race and I can only conclude that knowing how far along Iran is and how they feel that they are hedging their bets and it is already under way clandestinely.
On the other side there is Israel! I realized a long time ago that Israel is the world's chief war monger and we seem to do their bidding and fighting. If they get into a war with Iran we will end up coming to their rescue regardless of what they do or what Hillary says and that is sad! We should in fact take care of Jewish American's and American's and our interests in Israel and otherwise tell them in no uncertain terms they are on their own if they continue to instigate war not peace and expecting us to come to their rescue.
Remember Mordechai Vanunu whistle blower of Israel's clandestine nuclear program? Uzi Eilam former head of Israel's Atomic Energy Commission said Mordechai Vanunu did Israel a favor after revealing information about an illegal nuclear program at Israel's Dimona reactor. His information proved that Israel had broken the 1968 treaty on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
There is a US law that prohibits the support of countries that break the treaty in question. Vanunu's information led foreign experts to conclude that Israel had produced fissile material for as many as 200 atomic warheads thus warning other Nation's of Israel's military might. It was okay for Israel why the hypocrisy? Remember Mordechai Vanunu whistle blower of Israel's clandestine nuclear program? Uzi Eilam former head of Israel's Atomic Energy Commission said Mordechai Vanunu did Israel a favor after revealing information about an illegal nuclear program at Israel's Dimona reactor. His information proved that Israel had broken the 1968 treaty on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.
There is a US law that prohibits the support of countries that break the treaty in question. Vanunu's information led foreign experts to conclude that Israel had produced fissile material for as many as 200 atomic warheads thus warning other Nation's of Israel's military might. It was okay for Israel why the hypocrisy? Remember this discussion? The US will pay the price for Israel and US nuclear lies and hypocrisy after Israel attacks!
I must admit Israel's hypocrisy and lies are a plan I have discussed often and I have to disagree with Eliam's final assertion. He says an attack on Iran's nuclear program would be counter productive. I beg to differ! The General hit the nail on the head though and does not know it. I have long asserted that Israel would attack Iran's nuclear interests and we would come to her rescue.
This ties in nicely.
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