Masters Of War

Come you masters of war You that build all the guns You that build the death planes You that build all the bombs You that hide behind walls You that hide behind desks I just want you to know I can see through your masks. You that never done nothin' But build to destroy You play with my world Like it's your little toy You put a gun in my hand And you hide from my eyes And you turn and run farther When the fast bullets fly. Like Judas of old You lie and deceive A world war can be won You want me to believe But I see through your eyes And I see through your brain Like I see through the water That runs down my drain. You fasten all the triggers For the others to fire Then you set back and watch When the death count gets higher You hide in your mansion' As young people's blood Flows out of their bodies And is buried in the mud. You've thrown the worst fear That can ever be hurled Fear to bring children Into the world For threatening my baby Unborn and unnamed You ain't worth the blood That runs in your veins. How much do I know To talk out of turn You might say that I'm young You might say I'm unlearned But there's one thing I know Though I'm younger than you That even Jesus would never Forgive what you do. Let me ask you one question Is your money that good Will it buy you forgiveness Do you think that it could I think you will find When your death takes its toll All the money you made Will never buy back your soul. And I hope that you die And your death'll come soon I will follow your casket In the pale afternoon And I'll watch while you're lowered Down to your deathbed And I'll stand over your grave 'Til I'm sure that you're dead.------- Bob Dylan 1963

Monday, January 18, 2021

global oil supply near December's demand; US distillates exports at a 40 mo low​; gasoline production at a 34 week low​

oil prices managed an increase for the tenth time out of the past eleven weeks despite a sharp selloff on Friday, as strength in equities, a weaker dollar, and strong Chinese demand bouyed prices...after rising 7.7% to a ten month high of $52.24 a barrel last week after the Saudis unilaterally cut their oil output, the contract price of US light sweet crude for February delivery opened higher on Monday but quickly turned lower as lockdowns spread and China saw its biggest daily increase in virus infections in more than five months, but came back to close a penny higher at $52.25 a barrel as pressure from a rising dollar and worries over a COVID-related hit to demand was overshadowed by optimism over prospects for near-term exports...oil prices started lower early Tuesday as traders remained concerned about climbing coronavirus cases globally, but turned higher to settle with a gain of 96 cents at $53.21 a barrel, as wall street rallied and the dollar weakened, raising the appeal of commodities priced in the currency....oil prices then rose overnightafter the API reported a surprisingly large crude inventory drawdown and hence opened higher Wednesday, but couldn't hold those gains even after the EIA also reported a larger than expected crude draw, ending down 30 cents at $52.91 a barrel after the U.S. dollar gained ground and inventories of gasoline and distillates rose more than expected...oil prices moved higher again on Thursday, boosted by a weaker dollar and bullish signs from Chinese import data and ended 66 cents, or 1.3%, higher at an 11 month high of $53.57 a barrel, buoyed by the ongoing Covid-19 vaccine rollout and expectations that the Biden administration’s proposed stimulus package would improve demand for crude...boosted by strong import data from China, oil prices opened higher on Friday, but quickly faded as the dollar rose and China ramped up lockdown measures to control its latest outbreak and tumbled more than 2% to end the session at $52.36 a barrel, down $1.21 on the day, but still up 12 cents on the week, as vaccine breakthroughs and Saudi Arabia’s earlier pledge to deepen output cuts continued to support prices...

natural gas price also saw a small increase this week as traders ​continue to bet that a polar air mass​ will arrive later this month....after rising 6.3% to $2.700 per mmBTU last week on forecasts for colder weather and greater heating demand later in January, the contract price of natural gas for February delivery opened 10 cents lower on Monday, following forecasts for mild weather and diminished heating demand, but rebounded in afternoon trading to finish 4.7 cents higher at $2.747 per mmBTU amid anticipation of a late-month Polar Vortex and a surge in frigid temperatures...natural gas prices surged 15 cents or more than 5%​​ early on Tuesday amid expectations for that intensifying cold air outbreak, but reversed in the afternoon when models showed “not quite as cold air into Western Canada, thereby pushing less impressive subfreezing air into the U.S. as well” in late January, with gas prices settling for a six-tenths of a cent gain at $2.753 per mmBTU...conflicting forecasts led to an erratic day of trading on Wednesday that saw natural gas prices swing between gains and losses several times before settling 2.6 cents lower at $2.727 per mmBTU, and then gas prices fell to their lowest in a week on Thursday on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand over the next two weeks than was previously expected, even as the draw of ​natural ​gas from storage was larger than expected...on Friday, however, forecasts shifted back to greater expectations for a severe polar outbreak and stronger heating demand by late January, boosting gas prices by 7.1 cents to $2.737 per mmBTU, thus finishing 3.7 cents, or 1.4% higher on the week..

the natural gas storage report from the EIA for the week ending January 8th indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in underground storage in the US decreased by 134 billion cubic feet to 3,196 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our gas supplies 126 billion cubic feet, or 4.1% higher than the 3,070 billion cubic feet that were in storage on January 8th of last year, and 218 billion cubic feet, or 7.3% above the five-year average of 2,978 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been in storage as of the 8th of January in recent years....the 134 billion cubic feet that were drawn out of US natural gas storage this week was more than the average forecast of a 123 billion cubic foot withdrawal from an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts, ​and ​still more than the 126 billion cubic feet withdrawal from natural gas storage seen during the corresponding week of a year earlier, but it was quite a bit less than the average withdrawal of 161 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have typically been pulled out of natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years​...

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending January 8th indicated that despite an increase in oil imports and a decrease in oil exports, we still had to withdraw oil from our stored commercial ​crude ​supplies for the 7th time in the past eight weeks and for the 18th time in the past twenty-five weeks...our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 870,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,239,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 43,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 621,000 barrels per day to 3,011,000 barrels per day during the week, which meant that our effective trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 3,228,000 barrels of per day during the week ending January 8th, 1,491,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week...over the same period, the production of crude oil from US wells was reportedly unchanged at 11,000,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our trade in oil and from well production totaled an average of 14,228,000 barrels per day during this reporting week... 

meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing 14,650,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 8th, 274,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil they used during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA's surveys indicated that a net of 464,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US....so based on that reported & estimated data, this week's crude oil figures from the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from storage, and from oilfield production was 43,000 barrels per day more than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week...to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (-43,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet to make the reported data for the average daily supply of oil and the data for the average daily consumption of it balance out, essentially a balance sheet fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as "unaccounted for crude oil", thus suggesting that there must have been an error or errors of that magnitude in the oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed....however, since last week's line 13 balance sheet adjustment was +495,000 barrels per day, indicating a week over week difference of 537,000 barrels per day in the fudge factor, the difference between those errors means any week over week comparisons of oil supply and demand figures reported here are pretty useless...still, since most everyone treats these weekly EIA figures as gospel and since these numbers often drive oil pricing and hence decisions to drill or complete wells, we'll continue to report them as published, just as they're watched & believed to be accurate by most everyone in the industry.....(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that "unaccounted for" oil, see this EIA explainer)....

further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to an average of 5,625,000 barrels per day last week, which was still 14.9% less than the 6,611,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year.....the 464,000 barrel per day net withdrawal from our crude inventories was due to a 464,000 barrels per day withdrawal from our commercially available stocks of crude oil, while the oil supplies in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve remained unchanged....this week's crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 11,000,000 barrels per day because the rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 10,500,000 barrels per day, while a 3,000 barrel per day decrease to 511,000 barrels per day in Alaska's oil production had no impact on the rounded national total...last year's US crude oil production for the week ending January 10th was rounded to 13,000,000 barrels per day, so this reporting week's rounded oil production figure was 15.4% below that of a year ago, yet still 30.5% more than the interim low of 8,428,000 barrels per day that US oil production fell to during the last week of June of 2016...    

meanwhile, US oil refineries were operating at 82.0% of their capacity while using those 14.650,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending January 8th, up from 80.7% of capacity during the prior week, and matching the highest refinery utilization rate since March....however, since US refinery utilization averaged the lowest on record through 2020, the 14,650,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week were still 13.7% fewer barrels than the 16,973,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending January 10th of last year, when US refineries were operating at 92.2% of capacity...

despite the increase in the amount of oil being refined, gasoline output from our refineries was lower for the 6th time in 8 weeks, decreasing by 498,000 barrels per day to a 34 week low of 7,512,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 8th, after our gasoline output had decreased by 1,181,000 barrels per day over the prior week...and since our gasoline production was just beginning to recover from a multi-year low in the wake of this Spring's covid lockdowns, that further ​drop meant that this week's gasoline output was 19.1% less than the 9,281,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the same week of last year....at the same time, our refineries' production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) ​​decreased by 124,000 barrels per day to 4,661,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 146,000 barrels per day over the prior week....and since it was also just coming off a three year low, our distillates' production was 10.5% less than the 5,205,000 barrels of distillates per day that were being produced during the week ending January 10th, 2020...

even with the big drop in our gasoline production, our supply of gasoline in storage at the end of the week increased for the seventh time in nine weeks, for 11th time in 27 weeks, rising by 4,​395,000 barrels to 245,476,000 barrels during the week ending January 8th, after our gasoline inventories had ​increased by 4,519,000 barrels over the prior week...our gasoline supplies increased ​again ​this week even as the amount of gasoline supplied to US users increased by 91,000 barrels per day to 7,532,000 barrels per day, because our exports of gasoline fell by 285,000 barrels per day to 598,000 barrels per day, while our imports of gasoline fell by 62,000 barrels per day to 383,000 barrels per day....but even after this week's inventory increase, our gasoline supplies were 5.0% lower than last January 10th's gasoline inventories of 258,287,000 barrels, while about 1% above the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year... 

meanwhile, with the increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels increased for the 6th time in 7 weeks and for the 22nd time in the past year, rising by 4,786,000 barrels to 152,029,000 barrels during the week ending January 8th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 6,390,000 barrels during the prior week....our distillates supplies rose again this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 668​,​000 barrels per day to 3,609,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates fell by 518,000 barrels per day to a 40 month low of 714,000 barrels per day while our imports of distillates rose by 44,000 barrels per day to 346,000 barrels per day....after this week's inventory increase, our distillate supplies at the end of the week were 10.9% above the 147,221,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on January 10th, 2020, and about 9% above the five year average of distillates stocks for this time of the year...

finally, even with the increase in our oil imports and the decrease in our oil exports, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage (not including the commercial oil being stored in the SPR) fell for the 20th time in the past thirty-one weeks but for just the 23rd time in the past year, decreasing by 8,010,000 barrels, from 485,459,000 barrels on January 1st to 482,211,000 barrels on January 8th...but even after that decrease, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 9% above the five-year average of crude oil supplies for this time of year, and about 47% above the prior 5 year (2011 - 2015) average of our crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of January, with the disparity between those comparisons arising because it wasn't until early 2015 that our oil inventories first topped 400 million barrels....since our crude oil inventories had generally been rising over the past two years, except for this autumn and during the past two summers, after generally falling over the year and a half prior to September of 2018, our commercial crude oil supplies as of January 8th were still 12.5% more than the 428,511,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on January 10th of 2020, and also 10.3% more than the 437,055,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on January 11th of 2019, and 16.9% above the 412,654,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on January 12th of 2018...  

OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report

Thursday of this past week saw the release of OPEC's January Oil Market Report, which covers OPEC & global oil data for December, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation over the fifth month of the extended agreement between OPEC, the Russians, and other oil producers, wherein they have agreed to cut production by 7.7 million barrels a day from the 2018 peak, reduced from the 9.7 million barrels a day cuts they had imposed on themselves during May, June and July....before we look at what this month's report shows us, we should again caution that estimating oil demand while the course of the Covid-19 pandemic remains uncertain is pretty speculative, and hence the demand estimates we'll be reporting this month should again be considered as having a much larger margin of error than we'd expect from this report during stable and hence more predictable periods.. 

the first table from this monthly report that we'll check is from the page numbered 48 of this month's report (pdf page 58), and it shows oil production in thousands of barrels per day for each of the current OPEC members over the recent years, quarters and months, as the column headings indicate...for all their official production measurements, OPEC uses an average of estimates from six "secondary sources", namely the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil-pricing agencies Platts and Argus, ‎the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the oil consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and the industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, as a means of impartially adjudicating whether their output quotas and production cuts are being met, to thereby avert any potential disputes that could arise if each member reported their own figures...

December 2020 OPEC crude output via secondary sources

as we can see from the above table of their oil production data, OPEC's oil output increased by 278,000 barrels per day to 25,362,000 barrels per day during December, from their revised November production total of 25,083,000 barrels per day...however, that November output figure was originally reported as 25,109,000 barrels per day, which thus means that OPEC's October production was revised 26,000 barrels per day lower with this report, and hence December's production was, in effect, a rounded 252,000 barrel per day increase from the previously reported OPEC production figure (for your reference, here is the table of the official November OPEC output figures as reported a month ago, before this month's revisions)...

from the above table, we can see that a 136,000 barrels per day increase in Libyan production, an increase of 76,000 barrels per day in Iraq's output, and a production increase of 63,000 barrels per day from the Emirates were the major factors in OPEC's December output increase...while Libyan production is still recovering from their years of civil strife, Iraq and UAE were the two major producers who objected to the extension of the current production cuts in meetings in early December...that contentious meeting resulted in an OPEC agreement to increase production by 500,000 barrel per day in January, so it appears that Iraq, the Emirates, and a few others may be jumping the gun on that increase...

recall that this year's original oil producer's agreement was to cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day from an October 2018 baseline for just two months early in the pandemic, during May and June, but that agreement was extended to include July at a meeting between OPEC and other producers on June 6th....then, in a subsequent meeting in July, OPEC and the other oil producers agreed to ease their deep supply cuts by 2 million barrels per day to 7.7 million barrels per day for August and subsequent months, which is thus the agreement that covers OPEC's output in this month's report...however, war torn Libya and US sanctioned OPEC members Iran and Venezuela were exempt from the production cuts imposed by that agreement, and as you can see above, together with Iraq and the Emirates, those exempt members account for this month's production increase... 

since there has never seemed to be a published table or listing available of how much each OPEC member was expected to produce under the eased production cuts of August through December, we've been including the table that shows the October 2018 reference production for each of the OPEC members (as well as other producers party to the mid-April agreement), as well as the production level each of those producers was expected to cut their output to during May, June, and July...from the following table, we can easily compute the production quotas that each of the OPEC members was expected to hold to in December:

April 13th 2020 OPEC   emergency cuts

the above table shows the oil production baseline in thousands of barrel per day from which each of the oil producers was to cut from in the first column, a figure which is based on each of the producer's October 2018 oil output, ie., a date before the past year's and this year's output cuts took effect, and coincidently the highest ​monthly ​production of the era for most of the producers ​who are ​party to these cuts; the second column shows how much each participant had originally committed to cut during May and June in thousands of barrel per day, which was 23% of the October 2018 baseline for all participants except for Mexico, while the last column shows the production level each participant had agreed to after that cut...the producer's agreement for August through the end of this year amends the above such that each member would be allowed to ​reduce their production cut shown above (ie, the "voluntary adjustment" shown above) by 20%...for example, Algeria's "cut" was expected to be 241,000 barrels per day from May thru July, which would reduce their oil production to 816,000 barrels per day over that period...under the new agreement for August and the following months, Algeria would reduce their "cut" by 20%, or to 193,000 barrels per day, thus allowing them to produce 864,000 barrels per day during December...offhand, by comparing this table's allocation ​plus​ ​20% to the initial OPEC production table above, it appears that only Iraq, who's December production should have been limited to 3,804,000 barrels per day, is the only OPEC member to have exceeded their production quota for December...

the next graphic from this month's report that we'll highlight shows us both OPEC and world oil production monthly on the same graph, over the period from January 2019 to December 2020, and it comes from page 50 (pdf page 60) of the November OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report....on this graph, the cerulean blue bars represent OPEC's monthly oil production in millions of barrels per day as shown on the left scale, while the purple graph represents global oil production in millions of barrels per day, with the metrics for global output shown on the right scale.... 

December 2020 OPEC report global oil supply (2)

after the reported 278,000 barrel per day increase in OPEC's production from what they produced a month earlier, OPEC's preliminary estimate indicates that total global liquids production increased by a rounded 58 million barrels per day to average 92.93 million barrels per day in December, a reported increase which apparently came after November's total global output figure was revised down by 180,000 barrels per day from the 92.53 million barrels per day of global oil output that was reported a month ago, as non-OPEC oil production rose by a rounded 300,000 barrels per day in December after that revision, with oil production increases of 290,000 barrels per day from the OECD countries accounting for almost all of the non-OPEC production increase in December... after that increase in December's global output, the 92.93 million barrels of oil per day that were produced globally in December were 8.23 million barrels per day, or 8.1% less than the revised 101.16 million barrels of oil per day that were being produced globally in December a year ago, which was the 12th month of OPECs first round of production cuts (see the January 2020 OPEC report (online pdf) for the originally reported December 2019 details)...with this month's increase in OPEC's output, their December oil production of 25,362,000 barrels per day was at 27.3% of what was produced globally during the month, ​an increase from their revised 27.2% share of the global total in November.... OPEC's December 2019 production, which included 538,000 barrels per day from former OPEC member Ecuador, was reported at 29,444,000 barrels per day, which means that the 13 OPEC members who were part of OPEC last year produced 3,544,000, or 12.2% fewer barrels per day of oil in December 2020 than what they produced a year earlier, when they accounted for 29.4% of global output... 

However, even after the increase in OPEC's and global oil output that we've seen in this report, there was still a ​mode​s​t s​hortfall in the amount of oil being produced globally during the month, as this next table from the OPEC report will show us...   

December 2020 OPEC report global oil demand

the above table came from page 25 of the December OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (pdf page 35), and it shows regional and total oil demand estimates in millions of barrels per day for 2019 in the first column, and OPEC's estimate of oil demand by region and globally quarterly over 2020 over the rest of the table...on the "Total world" line in the fifth column, we've circled in blue the figure that's relevant for December, which is their estimate of global oil demand during the fourth quarter of 2020...

OPEC ​has estimated that during the 4th quarter of this year, all oil consuming regions of the globe ​had been using an average of 93.56 million barrels of oil per day, which is a 900,000 barrels per day upward revision from the 93.47 million barrels of oil per day they were estimating for the 4th quarter a month ago (note that we have encircled this month's revisions in green), still reflecting quite a bit of coronavirus related demand destruction compared to 2019, when 4th quarter global demand averaged 100.95 million barrels per day....but as OPEC showed us in the oil supply section of this report and the summary supply graph above, OPEC and the rest of the world's oil producers were producing 92.93 million barrels million barrels per day during December, which would imply that there was a shortage of around 370,000 barrels per day in global oil production in December when compared to the demand estimated for the month..

In addition to figuring December's global oil supply shortfall that's evident in this report, the downward revision of 180,000 barrels per day to November's global oil output that's implied in this report, plus the 90,000 barrels per day upward revision to fourth quarter demand noted above, means that the 940,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for November would now be revised to a shortage of 1,210,000 barrels per day..,similarly, the 2,420,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for October would now be revised to a shortage of 2,510,000 barrels per day once we account for the the 90,000 barrels per day upward revision to fourth quarter demand...

However, note that in green we've also circled an downward revision of 200,000 barrels per day to third quarter demand, a quarter when there was also shortage of oil production as compared to demand....that downward revision to demand means that the 600,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for September would now be revised to a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day, that the 1,730,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for August would now be revised to a shortage of 1,530,000 barrels per day, and that the 3,050,000 barrels per day global oil output shortage we had previously figured for July would now be revised to an estimated shortage of 2,850,000 barrels per day...

Note that we've also circled a downward revision of 20,000 barrels per day to second quarter demand, a quarter when there was a large excess of oil production due to coronavirus related lockdowns...based on that downward revision to demand, our previous estimate that there was a surplus of 4,900,000 barrels per day in June would now be revised up to a 4,920,000 barrels per day surplus, that the oil surplus of 7,680,000 barrels per day that we had previously figured for May would have to be revised to a surplus of 7,700,000 barrels per day, and that the 16,430,000 barrels per day surplus that we had previously figured for April would have to be revised to a surplus of 16,450,000 barrels per day...  

Finally, note there was also an upward revision of 200,000 barrels per day to first quarter demand, which we have also encircled in green on the table above...that means that the record global oil surplus of 17,750,000 barrels per day we had previously figured for March would have to be revised to a still record global oil surplus of 17,550,000 barrels per day, that the 1,870,000 barrel per day global oil production surplus we had figured for February would now be a 1,670,000 barrel per day global oil output surplus, and that the 900,000 barrel per day global oil output surplus we last had for January would now be revised to a 700,000 barrel per day oil output surplus.. so despite the shortage of oil that has developed in the second half of this year, it's obvious the world's oil producers had produced a lot of oil earlier this year that no one wanted...  

This Week's Rig Count

The US rig count rose for the 17th time in the past eighteen weeks during the week ending January 15th, but for just the 19th time in the past 44 weeks, and hence it is still down by 53.0% over that forty-four week period....Baker Hughes reported that the total count of rotary rigs running in the US rose by 13 to 373 rigs this past week, which was still down by 423 rigs from the 796 rigs that were in use as of the January 10th report of 2020, and was also still 31 fewer rigs than the all time low rig count prior to 2020, and 1,556 fewer rigs than the shale era high of 1,929 drilling rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014, the week before OPEC began to flood the global oil market in their first attempt to put US shale out of business....

The number of rigs drilling for oil increased by 12 rigs to 287 oil rigs this week, after rising by 8 oil rigs the prior week, leaving us with 386 fewer oil rigs than were running a year ago, and still less than a fifth of the recent high of 1609 rigs that were drilling for oil on October 10th, 2014....at the same time, the number of drilling rigs targeting natural gas bearing formations was up by 1 to 85 natural gas rigs, which was still down by 35 natural gas rigs from the 120 natural gas rigs that were drilling a year ago, and just 5.3% of the modern era high of 1,606 rigs targeting natural gas that were deployed on September 7th, 2008...in addition to those rigs drilling for oil or gas, one rig classified as 'miscellaneous' continue​d​ to drill in Lake County, California this week, while a year ago there were three such "miscellaneous" rigs deployed...

The Gulf of Mexico rig count was down by 1 to 16 rigs this week, with 15 of those rigs drilling for oil in Louisiana's offshore waters, up from 14 last week, and one drilling for oil offshore from Texas, down from 3 a week ago...the total was 4 fewer Gulf rigs than the 20 rigs drilling in the Gulf a year ago, when 18 Gulf rigs were drilling for oil offshore from Louisiana, one rig was drilling for natural gas in the Mississippi Canyon offshore from Louisiana, and one rig was drilling for oil offshore from Texas...since there are no rigs operating off of other US shores at this time, nor were there a year ago, this week's national offshore rig figures are equal to the Gulf rig counts....however, in addition to those rigs offshore, there are now 3 rigs drilling through inland bodies of water this week, one in Lafourche Parish, south of New Orleans, another in St Mary parish, farther west along the southern Louisiana coast, and ​an​other in Chambers County, Texas, just east of Houston, while a year ago there was just one rig drilling on US inland waters..

The count of active horizontal drilling rigs was up by 12 to 332 horizontal rigs this week, which was still 377 fewer horizontal rigs than the 709 horizontal rigs that were in use in the US on January 17th of last year, and less than a quarter of the record of 1372 horizontal rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014...at the same time, the vertical rig count was up by one to 19 vertical rigs this week, but those were also still down by 24 from the 43 vertical rigs that were operating during the same week a year ago....meanwhile, the directional rig count was unchanged at 22 directional rigs this week, and those were still down by 22 from the 44 directional rigs that were in use on January 17th of 2020....

The details on this week's changes in drilling activity by state and by major shale basin are shown in our screenshot below of that part of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes that gives us those changes...the first table below shows weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major oil & gas producing states, and the table below that shows the weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major US geological oil and gas basins...in both tables, the first column shows the active rig count as of January 15th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week's count (January 8th) and this week's (January 15th) count, the third column shows last week's January 8th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running during the count before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting week a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 17th of January, 2020..    

January 15 2021 rig count summary

even as there were more changes in drilling activity this week than recently, most of the new rigs were concentrated in the Permian...checking for the details on the Permian in Texas from the Rigs by State file at Baker Hughes, we find that there were 8 new rigs added in Texas Oil District 8, which corresponds to the core Permian Delaware, and another rig was added in Texas Oil District 8A, which encompasses the northern counties in the Permian Midland, thus indicating that the Permian basin in Texas saw an increase of 9 rigs this week...since the national Permian rig count was up by 10, that means that the rig that was added in New Mexico must have been added in the far west reaches of the Permian Delaware, to account for the national Permian basin rig increase...elsewhere in Texas, there were 2 rigs added in Texas Oil District 1, which would account for the two rig increase in the Eagle Ford shale, and another rig added in Texas Oil District 10, which is usually indicative of a Granite Wash rig increase, but not this week, since the Granite Wash​ basin​ still shows no activity...rigs removed from Texas include one that ​had been drilling for oil offshore, and another pulled from Texas Oil District 6, which had been drilling in the Haynesville shale....the Haynesville shale still sho​w​s an increase, however, because two rigs were added in that basin in northern Louisiana; the other Louisiana rig increases were on inland waters and offshore...elsewhere, 2 oil rigs were added in Colorado, in the Niobrara chalk of the Rockies' front range, while oil rigs were pulled out of the Williston basin in Norht Dakota and from an unnamed basin in Oklahoma at the same time....this week's natural gas rig increase was in the aforementioned Haynesville shale, while the Marcellus shale showed no ​net ​change because while two rigs were pulled out of the Marcellus in Pennsylvania, two rigs were added in the Marcellus in West Virginia at the same time..

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note: there's more here...

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