Masters Of War

Come you masters of war You that build all the guns You that build the death planes You that build all the bombs You that hide behind walls You that hide behind desks I just want you to know I can see through your masks. You that never done nothin' But build to destroy You play with my world Like it's your little toy You put a gun in my hand And you hide from my eyes And you turn and run farther When the fast bullets fly. Like Judas of old You lie and deceive A world war can be won You want me to believe But I see through your eyes And I see through your brain Like I see through the water That runs down my drain. You fasten all the triggers For the others to fire Then you set back and watch When the death count gets higher You hide in your mansion' As young people's blood Flows out of their bodies And is buried in the mud. You've thrown the worst fear That can ever be hurled Fear to bring children Into the world For threatening my baby Unborn and unnamed You ain't worth the blood That runs in your veins. How much do I know To talk out of turn You might say that I'm young You might say I'm unlearned But there's one thing I know Though I'm younger than you That even Jesus would never Forgive what you do. Let me ask you one question Is your money that good Will it buy you forgiveness Do you think that it could I think you will find When your death takes its toll All the money you made Will never buy back your soul. And I hope that you die And your death'll come soon I will follow your casket In the pale afternoon And I'll watch while you're lowered Down to your deathbed And I'll stand over your grave 'Til I'm sure that you're dead.------- Bob Dylan 1963

Monday, May 9, 2022

natural gas hits 164 month high; US oil supplies at a 746 week low; total oil+products inventories at a 711 week low

natural gas price hits 164 month high after doubling in 2 months; SPR at a 1058 week low, total US oil supplies at a 746 week low; distillates supplies at a 729 week low, total oil + products inventories at a 711 week low, gasoline imports at a 8 month high; natural gas rigs at a 31 month high..

oil prices rose for ​the third time in four weeks after the EU advanced a plan to phase out imports of Russian oil...after rising 2.6% to $104.69 a barrel last week as fears of lower supplies from Russia outweighed concerns about reduced demand from China, the contract price for US light sweet crude for June delivery opened lower and tumbled more than 3% early Monday on forecasts of weak economic growth in China following restrictive lockdowns of millions in Shanghai, and as the U.S. dollar rallied ahead of this week's Fed meeting, when a half point interest rate hike was expected, but bounced off the $100 a barrel level to rally ​late ​and finish trading 48 cents higher at $105.17 a barrel, triggered by reports that OPEC was only able to raise their output a little over 40,000 bpd, with their production shortfall growing to 200,000 bpd last month....but oil prices slipped out of the gate again on Tuesday, as demand worries stemming from China's prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns outweighed the prospect of a European embargo on Russian crude​,​ and their losses accelerated in afternoon trading as traders positioned ahead of the weekly release of U.S. inventory data, and the likelihood for the biggest Fed rate hike since at least 2000, and settled $2.76 lower at $102.41 a barrel...​however, oil prices jumped 3% in Asian trading on Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a larger-than-anticipated draw from US oil supplies and after the EU spelled out plans to phase out their imports of Russian oil, and then accelerated higher in afternoon trading, sending both major crude benchmarks 5% higher, after the Fed raised interest rates half a percent and the EIA reported a much larger-than-expected drop in domestic fuel stocks due to higher demand for gasoline and diesel, as front month ​oil prices settled $5.40 higher at $107.81 a barrel...oil continued higher in early trade Thursday, after the OPEC and Russian-led cartel agreed on a small, incremental production increase in June, sticking to their earlier plan​,​ despite the European Union's decision to embargo Russian oil, and then jumped 3% to over $111, after CNN leaked news of the administration's “long-term buyback plan” to partially refill the SPR, before paring its gains amid a ​5% ​stock market selloff, as traders reassessed ​the ​risk that the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes would tilt the U.S. economy into a recession, with oil closing just 45 cents higher at $108.26 a barrel... oil climbed for the third straight session during mid-morning Asian trade on Friday, erasing earlier losses, as concerns lingered over the prospect of tighter supplies after the EU’s embargo on Russian oil​,​ and closed the week at a six week high of $109.77 a barrel, $1.51 higher on the day, as impending sanctions on Russian oil raised the prospect of tighter supply and had traders shrugging off worries about global economic growth...oil prices thus ended 4.9% higher on the week, with energy traders completely fixated on the looming European sanctions on Russian oil, and none willing to be on the wrong side of a major crude supply disruption...

​Meanwhile​, natural gas prices rose for the seventh time in eight weeks and traded at their highest price levels since 2008 all week, as cold weather turned hot, leading to early demand for cooling​....after rising 8.7% to $7.244 per mmBTU last week after Russia began to cut off gas supplies to European countries for nonpayment, the contract price of natural gas for June delivery opened 2% higher on Monday as domestic supply remained constrained by sluggish production and an enduring inventory deficit​,​ and closed 23.1 cents higher ​at ​$7.475 per mmBTU, on forecasts of warmer-than-usual weather ​for the next two weeks, which would increase cooling demand and keep storage injections lower than normal during the season for the greatest inventory builds...natural gas prices then surged 9% to their highest level since 2008 on Tuesday​,​ as fallout from ​the ​Ukraine​ war​ wreaked havoc on global energy markets, but backed off the $8 level to ​end​ 47.9 cents higher at $7.954 per mmBTU....but natural gas prices shot right past $8 early Wednesday, as inventory concerns mounted ahead of a summer that promised high demand, and settled 46.1 cents higher at $8.415 per mmBTU, with underwhelming gas production, tight U.S. supplies, and forecasts for hot conditions across Texas and surrounding states into early next week seen as the primary drivers of spiking natural gas prices...natural gas prices rallied to their 3rd consecutive 13 year high on Thursday, and approached ​the ​$9 ​level, ​before settling with a 36.8 cent increase at $8.783 per mmBTU, as hot spring weather boosted air conditioning demand, while much higher global prices kept demand for LNG exports strong....however, after pushing to a hair below $9 at $8.996 ​early ​on Friday, natural gas prices tumbled 74.0 cents or more than 8% to $8.043 per mmBTU, as traders took profits on forecasts for a rise in output, milder weather and a drop in demand for the next two weeks....natural gas prices still ended 11% higher on the week, and remained at a level more than double that at the beginning of this year, which is fairly evident in the daily price graph we have included ​below...

the above is a screenshot of the interactive natural gas price chart from barchart.com, which i have ​re​set to show ​daily natural gas prices over the past ​6 months...this same chart can be reset to show prices of front month or individual monthly natural gas ​futures ​contracts over time periods ranging from 1 day to 30 years, as the menu bar on the top indicates, and also to show natural gas prices by the minute, hour, day, week or month for each...each bar in the graph above represents the range of natural gas prices for a single ​day, with​ days when prices rose indicated in green, and​ days when prices fell indicated in red, with the small sticks above or below each ​daily bar representing the extent of the price change above or below the opening and closing price for the​ day in question....likewise, the bars across the bottom show trading volume for the ​days in question, again with up ​days indicated by green bars and down ​​days indicated in red...​you'll note that by positioning our cursor over​ December 31​st, indicated by a ​thin vertical​ line, we have caused that day's​ natural gas prices ​to be displayed in green in the upper left corner of the graph...there we can see that natural gas prices closed at $3.579/mmBTU on that date, clearly less than half of any price seen this week...in fact, we can also see that natural gas traded below $4 on February 11th, so gas prices have more than doubled in less than two months..

​​The EIA's natural gas storage report for the week ending April 29th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage in the US rose by 77 billion cubic feet to 1,567 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which still left our gas supplies 382 billion cubic feet, or 19.6% below the 1,949 billion cubic feet that were in storage on April 29th of last year, and 306 billion cubic feet, or 16.3% below the five-year average of 1,873 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been in storage as of the 29th of April over the most recent five years....the 77 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas working storage for the cited week was 16 billion cubic feet more than the average forecast for a 61 billion cubic foot injection from an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts, but it was close to the average injection of 78 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have typically been added to our natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years, while it was well more than the 54 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2021...

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 29th indicated that because of an increase in our oil inports, a decrease in our oil exports, a withdrawal from the SPR, and a slowdown in our refining, we again had oil left to add to our stored commercial crude supplies, for the 9th time in 23 weeks and for the 18th time in the past forty-eight weeks, even after a big decrease in oil that could not be accounted for…our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 397,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,332,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 98,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by 147,000 barrels per day to 3,574,000 barrels per day during the week, which together meant that our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,758,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending April 29th, 544,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week…over the same period, production of crude oil from US wells was reportedly unchanged at 11,900,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 14,658,000 barrels per day during the cited reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 15,466,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 29th, an average of 218,000 fewer barrels per day than the amount of oil than our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net of 255,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US….so based on that reported & estimated data, this week’s crude oil figures from the EIA appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from storage, from net imports and from oilfield production was 553,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week…to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+553,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there must have been an error or omission of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed....moreover, since last week’s unaccounted for oil was at (+1,254,000) barrels per day, that means there was a 701,000 barrel per day difference between this week's balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the week over week supply and demand changes indicated by this week's report are completely meaningless....however, since most everyone treats these weekly EIA reports as gospel, and since these figures often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably accurate by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….

This week's 255,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories left our total oil supplies at 965,712,000 barrels at the end of the week, our lowest total oil inventory level since January 4th, 2008, and thus a 14 year low….this week's oil inventory decrease came even though 186,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil, because 441,000 barrels per day of oil were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve at the same time....that draw on the SPR included a withdrawal under the initial 30,000,000 million barrel release from the SPR to address Russian supply related shortfalls, as well as an earlier ongoing withdrawal under the administration's plan to release 50 million barrels from the SPR to incentivize US gasoline consumption....including other withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve under similar recent programs, a total of 106,162,000 barrels of oil have now been removed from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the past 21 months, and as a result the 549,985,000 barrels of oil still remaining in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now the lowest since December 28th, 2001, or at a 20 year low, as repeated tapping of our emergency supplies for non-emergencies or to pay for other programs has already drained those supplies considerably over the past dozen years...with Biden's recent "Plan to Respond to Putin’s Price Hike at the Pump", an additional and unprecedented 1,000,000 barrels per day will be released from the SPR daily starting this week and running up to the midterm elections in November, in the hope of keeping gasoline and diesel fuel prices from rising further up until that time....that total 180,000,000 barrel drawdown over the next six months will remove almost a third of what remains in the SPR at this time and leave us with what would be about a 20 day supply of oil at today's consumption rate...

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to an average of 6,025,000 barrels per day last week, which was 3.3% more than the 5,831,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year….this week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 11,900,000 barrels per day even though the EIA's rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was 100,000 barrels per day lower at 11,400,000 barrels per day, because Alaska’s oil production rose by 6,000 barrels per day to 453,000 barrels per day and added 100,000 barrels per day back to the final rounded national total (that's the EIA's math, not mine)....US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was still 9.1% below that of our pre-pandemic production peak, but was 41.2% above the interim low of 8,428,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the last week of June of 2016...

US oil refineries were operating at 88.4% of their capacity while using those 15,466,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending April 29th, down from the 90.3% utilization rate of the prior week, and below the historical utilization rate for late April refinery operations…the 15,466,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week were 1.5% more barrels than the 15,243,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending April 30th of 2021, when refineries were still recovering from winter storm Uri, and 19.2% more than the 12,976,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during the week ending May 1st, 2020, when US refineries were operating at what was then a much lower than normal 70.5% of capacity during the first wave of the pandemic, but still 6.0% less than the 16,446,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending April 26th 2019, when refinery utilization was also at a somewhat below normal 89.2% for the same week of April...

Even with the decrease in the amount of oil being refined this week, gasoline output from our refineries was somewhat higher, increasing by 175,000 barrels per day to 9,689,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 29th, after our gasoline output had decreased by 322,000 barrels per day over the prior week.…this week’s gasoline production was 5.9% more than the 9,146,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the same week of last year, but 2.4% below the gasoline production of 9,927,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 26th, 2019, ie, the year before the pandemic impacted gasoline output....at the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) decreased by 63,000 barrels per day to 4,719,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 34,000 barrels per day over the prior week…even after those decreases, our distillates output was 4.9% more than the 4,498,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 30th of 2021, but 8.0% less that the 5,128,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending April 26th, 2019...

Even with the increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the twelfth time in thirteen weeks, decreasing by 2,230,000 barrels to 228,575,000 barrels during the week ending April 29th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,573,000 barrels over the prior week....our gasoline supplies decreased again this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users increased by 117,000 barrels per day to 8,856,000 barrels per day, and even though our imports of gasoline rose by 282,000 barrels per day to an eight month high of 1,127,000 barrels per day while our exports of gasoline fell by 122,000 barrels per day to 836,000 barrels per day....but even with 12 inventory drawdowns over the past 13 weeks, our gasoline supplies were still only 3.1% lower than last April 30th's gasoline inventories of 235,811,000 barrels, and 4% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

with this week's decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels decreased for the 13h time in sixteen weeks and for the 25th time in thirty-five weeks, falling by 2,344,000 barrels to a fourteen year low of 104,942,000 barrels during the week ending April 29th, after our distillates supplies had decreased by 1,449,000 barrels during the prior week….our distillates supplies fell again this week as the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 122,000 barrels per day to 3,956,000 barrels per day, while our exports of distillates fell by 92,000 barrels per day to 1,189,000 barrels per day, and while our imports of distillates fell by 34,000 barrels per day to 91,000 barrels per day.....after forty inventory decreases over the past fifty-six weeks, our distillate supplies at the end of the week were 22.9% below the 136,153,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on April 30th of 2021, and about 22% below the five year average of distillates inventories for this time of the year…

The depressed level of our distillate supplies has led to diesel fuel and heat oil prices that have been $1 per gallon more than the already elevated price of gasoline, and both gasoline and diesel hit new record highs on NYMEX this week...supplies of diesel and pricing of it are also elevated in Europe and globally, leading to economic restrictions and power outages in countries that cant afford it, such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and now India...because price of diesel for immediate delivery versus the next month widened to the largest ever gap this week, Gulf refiners have found it more profitable to sell immediately to Europe than wait weeks for pipeline delivery to the US east coast, with those exports to Europe exacerbating domestic shortages....although those diesel shortages had developed over time, the loss of Russian oil has compounded the problem, because refineries get more diesel per barrel oil out of a heavy crude than they do from a light one, and most Russian oil exports are medium heavy sour crudes....that global shortage of diesel also explains the thinking behind the 1 million barrel per day SPR release better than the administration's political messaging about gasoline prices...for US Gulf Coast and European refineries that were built to use a medium heavy crude like Russian Urals, they need to find an equivalent grade of crude to replace it, or do some expensive blending of other grades to match it…remember that the administration’s first frantic moves after the Russian oil ban were to try to get Venezuelan oil and even Iranian oil back on the market to replace it?…well, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is 60% heavier grades of crude, so it appears that they’re pulling it out to partially replace embargoed Russian oil globally…most oil we get from shale is light and sweet, typically more expensive, but worthless when one is trying to replace Russian oil  losses...and those losses also explain our rising exports to Europe...

Meanwhile, with this week's increase in our oil imports, the withdrawal from the SPR, and the decrease in our oil refining, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 16th time in 40 weeks and for the 20th time in the past year, increasing by 1,303,000 barrels over the week, from 414,424,000 barrels on April 22nd to 415,727,000 barrels on April 29th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 691,000,000 barrels over the prior week…with this week’s increase, our commercial crude oil inventories rose to about 15% below the most recent five-year average of crude oil supplies for this time of year, but were still about 19% above the average of our crude oil stocks as of the fourth weekend of April over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the disparity between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories first topped 400 million barrels....since our crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of spring 2020, and then jumped again after last year's winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, our commercial crude oil supplies as of this April 22nd were 14.3% less than the 485,117,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on April 30th of 2021, and were also 21.9% less than the 532,221,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on May 1st of 2020, and 11.7% less than the 470,567,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on April 26th of 2019…

Finally, with our inventories of crude oil and our supplies of all products made from oil remaining near multi year lows, we are also continuing to keep track of the total of all U.S. Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, including those in the SPR....the EIA's data shows that the total of our oil and oil product inventories, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and those held by the oil industry, and thus including everything from gasoline and jet fuel to propane/propylene and residual fuel oil, fell by 479,000 barrels this week, from 1,696,899,000 barrels on April 22nd to 1,696,420,000 barrels on April 29th, after our total inventories had fallen by 2,187,000 barrels barrels during the prior week, and left our liquids inventories down by 92,013,000 barrels over the first 17 weeks of this year....at 1,696,420,000 barrels, our total inventories of oil & its products are now the lowest since December 26th, 2008, or at an 13 1/2 year low, as the graph below shows...

This Week's Rig Count

The number of drilling rigs running in the US rose for the 72nd time over the prior 84 weeks during the period ending May 6th, but it still remained 11.1% below the prepandemic rig count.....Baker Hughes reported that the total count of rotary rigs drilling in the US increased by seven to 705 rigs this past week, which was also 257 more rigs than 448 rigs that were in use as of the May 7th report of 2021, but was still 1,224 fewer rigs than the shale era high of 1,929 drilling rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014, a week before OPEC began to flood the global market with oil in an attempt to put US shale out of business….

The number of rigs drilling for oil was up by 5 to 557 oil rigs during this week, after rigs targeting oil had increased by 3 during the prior week, and there are now 213 more oil rigs active now than were running a year ago, even as they still amount to just 34.5% of the shale era high of 1609 rigs that were drilling for oil on October 10th, 2014, and as they are still down 18.4% from the prepandemic oil rig count….at the same time, the number of drilling rigs targeting natural gas bearing formations rose by 2 to 146 natural gas rigs, which was the most natural gas rigs deployed since September 27th, 20​19, up by 43 natural gas rigs from the 103 natural gas rigs that were drilling during the same week a year ago, even as they were still only 9.1% of the modern high of 1,606 rigs targeting natural gas that were deployed on September 7th, 2008…in addition to rigs targeting oil and gas, Baker Hughes continues to show two "miscellaneous" rigs active; one is a rig drilling vertically for a well or wells intended to store CO2 emissions in Mercer county North Dakota, and the other is also a vertical rig, drilling 5,000 to 10,000 feet into a formation in Humboldt county Nevada that Baker Hughes doesn't track; a year ago, there was only one such "miscellaneous" rig running...

The offshore rig count in the Gulf of Mexico increased by three to sixteen this week, with all of this week's Gulf rigs drilling for oil in Louisiana waters....that's three more than the count of offshore rigs that were active in the Gulf a year ago, when twelve Gulf rigs were drilling for oil offshore from Louisiana and one was deployed for oil in Texas waters…in addition to rigs drilling in the Gulf, there's also an offshore rig drilling in the Cook Inlet of Alaska, where natural gas is being targeted at a depth greater than 15,000 feet....a year ago, there were no offshore​ ​rigs other than those ​deployed ​in the Gulf of Mexico....however, last year did have an inland water based rig active, while this year there are no "inland waters" ​rigs ​remaining...

The count of active horizontal drilling rigs was up by 3 to 646 horizontal rigs this week, which was also 238 more rigs than the 408 horizontal rigs that were in use in the US on May 7th of last year, but still 53.0% less than the record 1,374 horizontal rigs that were drilling on November 21st of 2014....at the same time, the directional rig count was up by 4 to 34 directional rigs this week, and ​was up by 11 from the 23 directional rigs that were operating during the same week a year ago…meanwhile, the vertical rig count was unchanged at 25 vertical rigs this week, while those were still up by 8 from the 17 vertical rigs that were in use on May 7th of 2021….

The details on this week’s changes in drilling activity by state and by major shale basin are shown in our screenshot below of that part of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes that gives us those changes…the first table below shows weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major oil & gas producing states, and the table below that shows the weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major US geological oil and gas basins…in both tables, the first column shows the active rig count as of May 6th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (April 29th) and this week’s (May 6th) count, the third column shows last week’s April 29th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting week a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 7th of May, 2021...

there doesn't appear to have been much activity in the major oil basins this week; the four rigs added in Louisiana included the three oil rigs added in the Gulf of Mexico and a natural gas rig targeting the Haynesville shale in the northwestern quadrant of the state, while two more natural gas rigs were added in Pennsylvania's Marcellus, which were offset by the removal of a natural gas rig from a basin that Baker Hughes doesn't track...in Oklahoma, an oil rig was added in the Granite Wash near the Texas panhandle, and another oil rig was added in the Mississippian shale near Kansas, while an oil rig was pulled out of the Cana Woodford​ shale​, which means that the 2 rig increase indicated for Oklahoma includes an oil rig added in a basin that Baker Hughes doesn't track...

meanwhile, to account for the changes in Texas and New Mexico, we need to check the Rigs by State file at Baker Hughes for the changes in the Texas Permian, where we find that a rig was pulled out of Texas Oil District 8A​,​ which includes the counties in the northern Permian Midland, while the rig counts in other Texas Permian districts were unchanged...based on that, it appears that the rig that was added in New Mexico was in the western Permian Delaware, thus leaving the national Permian rig count unchanged...elsewhere in Texas, we find that a rig was added in Texas Oil District 4, but that a rig was pulled out of Texas Oil District 6, but since neither the Haynesville or the Eagle Ford ​counts ​reflect those changes, we have to assume both of those rig also involved basins that Baker Hughes doesn't track...

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note: there's more here...

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