Masters Of War

Come you masters of war You that build all the guns You that build the death planes You that build all the bombs You that hide behind walls You that hide behind desks I just want you to know I can see through your masks. You that never done nothin' But build to destroy You play with my world Like it's your little toy You put a gun in my hand And you hide from my eyes And you turn and run farther When the fast bullets fly. Like Judas of old You lie and deceive A world war can be won You want me to believe But I see through your eyes And I see through your brain Like I see through the water That runs down my drain. You fasten all the triggers For the others to fire Then you set back and watch When the death count gets higher You hide in your mansion' As young people's blood Flows out of their bodies And is buried in the mud. You've thrown the worst fear That can ever be hurled Fear to bring children Into the world For threatening my baby Unborn and unnamed You ain't worth the blood That runs in your veins. How much do I know To talk out of turn You might say that I'm young You might say I'm unlearned But there's one thing I know Though I'm younger than you That even Jesus would never Forgive what you do. Let me ask you one question Is your money that good Will it buy you forgiveness Do you think that it could I think you will find When your death takes its toll All the money you made Will never buy back your soul. And I hope that you die And your death'll come soon I will follow your casket In the pale afternoon And I'll watch while you're lowered Down to your deathbed And I'll stand over your grave 'Til I'm sure that you're dead.------- Bob Dylan 1963

Sunday, September 25, 2022

oil prices at a 8 month low; US oil supplies at a 19½ year low; distillates exports at a 51 month high; record low DUCs

oil prices at a 8 month low; US oil supplies at a 19½ year low; SPR at a 38 year low, distillates exports at a 51 month high; DUCs at a record low, completions at a three month low; DUC backlog is 4.4 months

oil prices fell for a fourth straight week and ended at an 8 month low as traders began to price in the effects of a monetary policy induced recession...after falling 1.9% to $85.11 a barrel last week as an elevated US inflation reading presaged this week's big interest rate hike, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for October delivery fell by more than 1.5% in Asian trading on Monday, pressured by expectations of weaker global demand and by U.S. dollar strength ahead of the expected large increase​s​ to interest rates, but reversed higher in afternoon trading in New York following industry surveys showing that OPEC and ​its ​10 allied partners missed their August production target, heightening concerns over tight ​global ​supplies​ to settle 62 cents higher at $85.73 a barrel, as traders weighed up the demand outlook amid easing Covid lockdown measures in China and the impact of slowing global growth...oil prices continued higher in overseas trading on the miss in OPEC+ production on Tuesday, but softened in New York ahead of monetary policy meetings by the Fed and the Bank of England that ​were expected to lead to aggressive rate hikes, and finished $1.28 lower at $84.45 a barrel as a strong U.S. dollar, rising yields and concerns over demand as the global economy slows weighed on crude prices, as trading in the October oil contract expired, and the more-active contract for November US light sweet crude fell $1.42 to $83.94 a barrel....after trading slightly lower overnight following an American Petroleum Institute (API) report of a modest build of crude oil inentories, oil prices jumped as much as 3.2% early on Wednesday after Russian President Putin announced a partial military mobilization, escalating the war in Ukraine and raising concerns ​about tighter oil and gas supply, but turned lower ahead of the noon hour in New York after EIA data reported U.S. crude and refined products inventories ​had ​increased sharply during the third week of September, while domestic demand remained a full 7% below last year's consumption rate, providing further evidence of demand destruction amid a broader economic slowdown, and then fell about 1% to a near two-week low of $82.94 a barrel in volatile trading after the Fed delivered another hefty rate hike that could reduce economic activity and demand for oil and as the U.S. dollar index surged to a 20 year high....however, oil prices bounced back in Asian markets on Thursday, as oil traders worried about tight supplies after Putin called up 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine and hinted that he was prepared to use nuclear weapons, and continued higher in New York as traders balanced concerns over short supplies this winter due to Putin's to cut oil exports to Europe, against sputtering demand fundamentals as central banks rush​ed​ to jack up interest rates to fight inflation, before paring the day's gains to settle 55 cents higher at $83.49 a barrel, hanging on for a slight gain after a slew of rate hikes around the world reaffirmed that central bankers would continue to fight inflation at the expense of economic growth...oil prices then tumbled 3% in overseas trading on Friday, as demand fears were stoked by rising interest rates and a stronger dollar​,​ and contined tumbling in US trading before settling $4.75, or 5.7% lower, at an eight month low of $78.74 a barrel, on fears that rising interest rates would tip major economies into recession, cutting demand for oil, and ​on ​a fresh twenty year high for the US dollar....oil prices thus finished down about 7.5% for the week, while the contract for November delivery, which had started the week at a 37​ cent​ discount to the expiring October contract, finished 7.1% lower...

At the same time, natural gas prices finished lower for a fifth consecutive week following the largest inventory increase of this year....after falling 2.9% to $7.764 per mmBTU last week on a bearish storage report and on the belief that a railroad strike had been averted, the contract price of US natural gas for October delivery continued lower in early trading on Monday, as analysts cited bearish technical momentum, and held near a six-week low through the session before settling 1.2 ce​n​ts lower at $7.753 per mmBTU on near record output and on forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than had been expected....natural gas prices shed another 3.5 cents and settled at another six week low of $7.717 per mmBTU​ ​on Tuesday, despite a bout of near-term heat and a drop in production, on expectations ​that ​demand would decline when the Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance in October...however, natural gas prices gained ground for the first time in five sessions on Wednesday as global supply doubts following Putin's threat ​to launch nuclear weapons overshadowed fading demand, and natural gas finished 6.2 cents higher at $7.779 per mmBTU...​but ​natural gas prices returned to the red on Thursday as a triple digit injection into storage exceeded expectations and eased concerns about winter supplies​, while prices finished 69.0 cents lower on the day in settling at a 10 week low of $7.089 per mmBTU...natural gas prices then followed oil prices lower on Friday and settled down 26.1 cents or 4% at $6.828 per mmBTU and thus finished 12.1% lower on the week, the biggest weekly percentage drop since June, and at another 10 week low...

The EIA's natural gas storage report for the week ending September 16th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage in the US rose by 103 billion cubic feet to 2,874 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which still left our gas supplies 197 billion cubic feet, or 6.4% below the 3,071 billion cubic feet that were in storage on September 16th of last year, and 332 billion cubic feet, or 11.3% below the five-year average of 3,125 billion cubic feet of natural gas that were in storage as of the 16th of September over the most recent five years....the 103 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas working storage for the cited week was above all ​the ​estimates from Bloomberg survey of analysts, whose expectations called for an injection of between 80 and 99 billion cubic feet, and was quite a bit more than the 77 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2021, and also more than the average injection of 81 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been added to our natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years....   

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 16th showed that after a big jump in our oil imports and another large withdrawal of oil from our SPR, we were able to add oil to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 5th time time in 8 weeks, and for the 19th time in the past 43 weeks....Our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 1,155,000 barrels per day to average 6,947,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 988,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 25,000 barrels per day to average 3,540,000 barrels per day, which together meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to an import average of 3,407,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending September 16th, 1,130,000 more barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. Over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly unchanged at 12,100,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have average​d a total​ of 15,507,000 barrels per day during the September 16th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,355,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 16th, an average of 333,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil than our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 822,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US. So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures from the EIA for the week ending September 16th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from oilfield production, and from storage was 26,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+26,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there must have been an omission or​ minor​ error of that ​size in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed... however, since last week’s EIA fudge factor was at (+792,000) barrels per day, that means there was a 766,000 barrel per day difference between this week's balance sheet error and the EIA's crude oil balance sheet error from a week ago, and hence the changes ​to supply and demand from that week to this ​one ​that are indicated by this week's report are off by that much, rendering them useless...but since most everyone treats these weekly EIA reports as gospel, and since these figures often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably accurate by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….

This week's 822,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories left our oil supplies at 857,932,000 barrels at the end of the week, which is our lowest total oil inventory level since March 21st, 2003, and therefore at a 19 1/2 year low.….Our oil inventories decreased this week as 163,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil while 986,000 barrels per day of oil were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That draw on the SPR was another installment of the emergency withdrawal under Biden's "Plan to Respond to Putin’s Price Hike at the Pump" (sic), that was intended to supply 1,000,000 barrels of oil per day to commercial interests over a six month period up to the midterm elections in November, in the hope of keeping gasoline and diesel fuel prices from rising, at least up until then, and was apparently up by 864,000 barrels per day from two weeks ago because the administration is now attempting to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to manipulate prices on a weekly basis....Including the administration's initial 50,000,000 million barrel SPR release earlier this year, their subsequent 30,000,000 barrel release, and other withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve under recent release programs, a total of 228,989,000 barrels of oil have now been removed from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the past 26 months, and as a result the 427,158,000 barrels of oil still remaining in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now the lowest since August 10th, 1984, or at a 38 year low, as repeated tapping of our emergency supplies for non-emergencies or to pay for other programs had already drained those supplies considerably over the past dozen years, even before the Biden administration's SPR releases. Now the total 180,000,000 barrel drawdown of the current release program​, now scheduled to run​ through November​,​ will remove almost a third of what remained in the SPR when the program started, and leave us with what would be less than a 20 day supply of oil at today's consumption rate...

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to an average of 6,368,000 barrels per day last week, which was 4.5% more than the 6,094,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 12,100,000 barrels per day because the EIA's rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 11,700,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 4,000 barrels per day lower at 430,000 barrels per day but had no impact on the final rounded national total. US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 7.6% below that of our pre-pandemic production peak, but was 24.7% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021...

US oil refineries were operating at 93.6% of their capacity while using those 16,355,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 9th, up from their 91.5% utilization rate during the prior week, and a refinery utilization rate that's a bit above the normal range for mid-September. The 16,355,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week were 6.6% more than the 15,347,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending September 17th of 2021 (after Hurricane Ida), but 1.0% less than the 16,513,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending September 20th, 2019, when our refinery utilization was at 89.9%, on the low side of the normal range for mid September...

With the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, the gasoline output from our refineries was a bit higher, increasing by 6,000 barrels per day to 9,459,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 9th, after our gasoline output had decreased by 399,000 barrels per day during the prior week. This week’s gasoline production was still 1.9% less than the 9,643,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the same week of last year, and  7.6% below the gasoline production of 10,240,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 20th, 2019, ie, during the year before the pandemic impacted US gasoline output. At the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 217,000 barrels per day to 5,236,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 12,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that increase, our distillates output was 17.6% more than the hurricane impacted 4,454,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 17th of 2021, and 4.7% more than the 5,000,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 13th 2019...

With the increase in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week ​rose for the 2nd time in 7 weeks; and for the 8th time out of the past thirty-three weeks, increasing by 1,570,000 barrels to 214,610,000 barrels during the week ending September 16th, after our gasoline inventories had decreased by 1,768,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies rose this week because the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 172,000 barrels per day to 8,322,000 barrels per day, and because our imports of gasoline rose by 253,000 barrels per day to 775,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline rose by 119,000 barrels per day to 1,189,000 barrels per day. But after 25 gasoline inventory drawdowns over the past 32 weeks, our gasoline supplies were still 3.2% lower than last September 17th's gasoline inventories of 221,616,000 barrels, and about 5% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

After the increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels increased for the 12th time in 18 weeks and for the 22nd time in the past year, rising by 1,230,000 barrels to 116,020,000 barrels during the week ending September 16th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 4.219,000 barrels during the prior we​​ek. Our distillates supplies rose by less this week ​even with the ​production​ increase ​because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, increased by 277,000 barrels per day to 3,409,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates rose by 349,000 barrels per day to a fifty one month high of 1,758,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 18,000 barrels per day to 107,000 barrels per day.. But after forty-eight inventory withdrawals over the past seventy-four weeks, our distillate supplies at the end of the week were still 9.3% below the 129,343,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on September 17th of 2021, and about 18% below the five year average of distillates inventories for this time of the year...

Meanwhile, with the big jump in our oil imports and the big withdrawal of crude from the SPR, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 12th time in 22 weeks and for the 23rd time in the past year, increasing by 1,141,000 barrels over the week, from 429,633,000 barrels on September 9th to 430,774,000 barrels on September 16th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 2,442,000 barrels over the prior week. After those increases, our commercial crude oil inventories were still about 2% below the most recent five-year average of crude oil supplies for this time of year, but 30.6% above the average of our crude oil stocks as of the third weekend of September over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the disparity between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories first topped 400 million barrels. And even though our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, and then jumped again after last year's winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, our commercial crude supplies as of this September 16th were 4.1% more than the 413,964,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on September 17th of 2021, while 12.9% less than the 494,406,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on September 18th of 2020, and 2.7% more than the 419,538,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on September 20th of 2019…

Lastly, with our inventories of crude oil and our supplies of all products made from oil near multi-year lows over the most recent months, we are continuing to watch the total of all U.S. Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, including those in the SPR. With the increases we've already noted, the EIA's data shows that the total of our oil and oil product inventories, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and those held by the oil industry, and thus including everything from gasoline and jet fuel to propane/propylene and residual fuel oil, rose by 2,344,000 barrels this week, from 1,664,676,000 barrels on September 9th to 1,667,020,000 barrels on September 16th, after our total inventories had fallen by 2,943,000 barrels during the prior week. That left our total liquids inventories down by 121,413,000 barrels over the first 34 weeks of this year, and only about 0.1% from a 13 1/2 year low...   

This Week's Rig Count

The number of drilling rigs running in the US rose for the third time in eight weeks, and for the 84th time over the past two years during the week ending September 23rd, but they're still 3.7% below the prepandemic rig count....Baker Hughes reported that the total count of rotary rigs drilling in the US increased by 1 to 764 rigs this past week, which was also 243 more rigs than the 521 rigs that were in use as of the September 24th report of 2021, but was 1,165 fewer rigs than the shale era high of 1,929 drilling rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014, a week before OPEC began to flood the global market with oil in an attempt to put US shale out of business….

The number of rigs drilling for oil increased by 3 to 602 oil rigs during the past week, after the number of rigs targeting oil had increased by 8 during the prior week, and there are now 181 more oil rigs active now than were running a year ago, even as they amount to just 37.4% of the shale era high of 1609 rigs that were drilling for oil on October 10th, 2014, and as they are still down 11.9% from the prepandemic oil rig count….at the same time, the number of drilling rigs targeting natural gas bearing formations decreased by 2 to 160 natural gas rigs, which was still up by 61 natural gas rigs from the 99 natural gas rigs that were drilling during the same week a year ago, even as they were less than 10% of the modern high of 1,606 rigs targeting natural gas that were deployed on September 7th, 2008….other than those rigs targeting oil and natural gas, Baker Hughes reports that two "miscellaneous" rigs continued drilling this week: a directional rig drilling to between 5,000 and 10,000 feet on the big island of Hawaii, and a vertical rig drilling more than 15,000 feet into a formation in Humboldt county Nevada that Baker Hughes doesn't track....in the past, we've identified vari​ous​ "miscellaneous" as being exploratory, for carbon dioxide storage, and for utility scale geothermal projects...a year ago, there were was only one such "miscellaneous" rig running...

The offshore rig count in the Gulf of Mexico was up by one to 15 rigs this week, with all of this week's Gulf rigs drilling for oil in Louisiana's offshore waters....that's in contrast to a year ago, when only 8 Gulf oil rigs had restarted in the wake of Hurricane Ida...in addition to rigs drilling in the Gulf, we still have an offshore directional rigs drilling to between 5,000 and 10,000 feet for natural gas in the Cook Inlet of Alaska, while a year ago, there were two rigs drilling offshore from Alaska...

In addition to rigs running offshore, there are also four water based rigs drilling through inland bodies of water this week; those include a directional rig drilling to between 10,000 and 15,000 feet, inland in Galveston Bay​, ​Texas, a directional rig drilling for oil to between 5,000 and 10,000 feet in Cameron Parish, Louisiana; a directional rig targeting oil at a depth greater than 15,000 feet drilling through a lake on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and a directional rig drilling for oil in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, also at a depth greater than 15,000 feet...a year ago, there were two rigs drilling on inland waters...

The count of active horizontal drilling rigs was down by 2 to 693 horizontal rigs this week, which was still 222 more rigs than the 471 horizontal rigs that were in use in the US on September 24th of last year, but just over half of the record 1,374 horizontal rigs that were drilling on November 21st of 2014....on the other hand, the directional rig count was up by 1 to 46 directional rigs this week, and those were up by 26 from the 20 directional rigs that were operating during the same week a year ago…at the same time, the vertical rig count was up by 2 to 25 vertical rigs this week, which was still down by 5 from the 30 vertical rigs that were in use on September 24th of 2021….

The details on this week’s changes in drilling activity by state and by major shale basin are shown in our screenshot below of that part of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes that gives us those changes…the first table below shows weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major oil & gas producing states, and the table below that shows the weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major US geological oil and gas basins…in both tables, the first column shows the active rig count as of September 23rd, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (September 16th) and this week’s (September 23rd) count, the third column shows last week’s September 16th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting week a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 24th of September, 2021...

obviously, the biggest increase was in New Mexico, but to figure out what happened there, we have to first check the Rigs by State file at Baker Hughes for the changes in Texas Permian...there we find that there were three oil rigs removed from Texas Oil District 8, which covers the core Permian Delaware, but that there was an oil rig added in Texas Oil District 8A, which covers the northernmost counties of the Permian Midland...hence, those changes indicate a 2 rig decrease in the Texas Permian, and since the national Permian basin count was up by 1 rig, we can conclude that all the rigs added in New Mexico were set up to drill in the far west Permian Delaware....meanwhile, the ​overall ​Permian basin shows a decrease of one natural gas rig, leaving five, and an increase of two oil rigs, now totalling 339....furthermore, since there were no other changes elsewhere in Texas, the Permian rig drop accounts for this week’s decrease in that state.

in other states, the North Dakota rig count was down by one with the removal of an oil rig from the Williston basin, the Louisiana rig count was up by one with the rig addition in the adjacent Gulf of Mexico, and the Oklahoma count was up by one with the addition of two oil rigs in the Cana Woodford, the addition of an oil rig in the Arkoma Woodford, the addition of an oil rig in Mississippian shale, the removal of an oil rig from the Ardmore Woodford, the removal of an oil rig from the Granite Wash, and the removal of a rig from a basin elsewhere in Oklahoma that Baker Hughes doesn't track at the same time...note that the Mississippian rig count remained unchanged with the removal of an oil rig from that basin in Kansas...

for natural gas rig changes other than the gas rig removal from the Permian in Texas Oil District 8, it appear that two natural gas rigs were added in Pennsylvania's Marcellus, while a natural gas rig was pulled out of West Virginia's Marcellus, and another natural gas rig was removed from the Utica​ shale​ in Pennsylvania, thus leaving the Appalachian ​rig ​count unchanged....the natural gas rig count was still down by two, however, due to a gas rig removal from a basin not tracked by Baker Hughes, which could have been the one pulled out from Oklahoma...

DUC well report for August

Monday of last week saw the release of the EIA's Drilling Productivity Report for September, which included the EIA's August data on drilled but uncompleted (DUC) oil and gas wells in the 7 most productive shale regions (shown under the report's tab 3)....that data showed a decrease in uncompleted wells nationally for the 26th consecutive month, as completions of drilled wells decreased while drilling of new wells increased in August, but remained well below average pre-pandemic levels...for the 7 sedimentary regions covered by this report, the total count of DUC wells decreased by 16 wells, falling from a revised 4,299 DUC wells in July to 4,28​3 DUC wells in August, which was the lowest number of US wells left uncompleted on record, and also 26.3% fewer DUCs than the 5,812 wells that had been drilled but remained uncompleted as of the end of August of a year ago...this month's DUC decrease occurred as 953 wells were drilled in the 7 regions that this report covers (representing 87% of all U.S. onshore drilling operations) during July, up from the revised 947 wells that were drilled in July, while 969 wells were completed and brought into production by fracking them, down by 3 from the 972 well completions seen in July, but up by 245 from the 716 completions seen in August of last year....at the August completion rate, the 4,277 drilled but uncompleted wells remaining at the end of the month represents a 4.4 month backlog of wells that have been drilled but are not yet fracked, ​virtuallly ​unchanged from the DUC well backlog of a month ago, which ​wa​s the lowest DUC backlog since March 2015, despite a completion rate that is nearly 15% below 2019's pre-pandemic average...

only the oil producing regions saw a net DUC well decrease during August, since the DUC well decrease in natural gas producing Appalachian basins was offset by the DUC well increase in Haynesville shale....the number of uncompleted wells remaining in the Permian basin of west Texas and New Mexico decreased by 19, from 1,180 DUC wells at the end of July to 1,161 DUCs at the end of August, as 416 new wells were drilled into the Permian basin during August, while 435 already drilled wells in the region were being fracked....in addition, the number of uncompleted wells remaining in Oklahoma's Anadarko basin decreased by 7, falling from 716 at the end of July to 709 DUC wells at the end of August, as 65 wells were drilled into the Anadarko basin during August, while 72 Anadarko wells were completed....meanwhile, there was a decrease of 1 DUC well in the Bakken of North Dakota, where ​the number of ​DUC wells fell from 426 at the end of July to a record low of 425 DUCs at the end of August, as 76 wells were drilled into the Bakken during August, while 77 of the drilled wells in the Bakken were being fracked....on the other hand, DUCs in the Eagle Ford shale of south Texas increased by 2, from 620 DUC wells at the end of July to 622 DUCs at the end of August, as 115 wells were drilled in the Eagle Ford during August, while 113 already drilled Eagle Ford wells were fracked....at the same time, DUC wells in the Niobrara chalk of the Rockies' front range increased by 9, rising from 345  at the end of July to 354 DUC wells at the end of August, as 119 wells were drilled into the Niobrara chalk during August, while 110 Niobrara wells were completed....

among the natural gas producing regions, the drilled but uncompleted well count in the Appalachian region, which includes the Utica shale, fell by 8 wells, from 529 DUCs at the end of June to 521 DUCs at the end of August, as 89 new wells were drilled into the Marcellus and Utica shales during the month, while 97 of the already drilled wells in the region were fracked....on the other hand, the uncompleted well inventory in the natural gas producing Haynesville shale of the northern Louisiana-Texas border region rose by 8, from 483 DUCs in June to 491 DUCs by the end of August, as 75 wells were drilled into the Haynesville during July, while 65 of the already drilled Haynesville wells were fracked during the same period....thus, for the month of August, DUCs in the five major oil-producing basins tracked by this report (ie., the Anadarko, Bakken, Niobrara, Permian, and Eagle Ford) decreased by a net total of 16 wells to 3,271 DUC wells, while the uncompleted well count in the major natural gas basins (the Marcellus, the Utica, and the Haynesville) was unchanged at 1,012 wells, although as this report notes, once into production, more than half the wells drilled nationally will produce both oil and gas...

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Note: there’s more here…

Monday, September 19, 2022

US oil supplies at a 19 year low; gasoline supplies at 42 week low; global oil surplus at 1,630,000 barrels per day

US oil supplies at a 19 year low; Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 37½ year low after record SPR withdrawal; gasoline supplies at 42 week low; distillates demand at a 21 month low; global oil surplus at 1,630,000 barrels per day in August, even as OPEC output is 1,411,000 barrels per day short of quota..

oil prices fell for a third straight week as a​n​ ​elevated US inflation re​ading presaged a large Fed interest rate hike next week...after falling just 0.1% to $86.79 a barrel over last week as lockdowns in China and a big build of US crude inventories were offset by a modest OPEC production cut and Russian threats to oil supplies, the contract price for the benchmark US light sweet crude for October delivery moved higher in Asian trading on Monday as the U.S. dollar weakened against other currencies and traders bet that inflation was at or near its peak, then rose in New York as Iranian nuclear talks appeared to hit obstacles and as an embargo on Russian oil shipments loomed, and settled 99 cents higher at $87.78 a barrel as ​oil ​supply concerns mounted heading into winter after the EIA reported a record draw from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve...after rising early Tuesday as the dollar strengthened ahead of the US inflation report, oil prices reversed and gave back half of Monday's gain, falling 47 cents to $87.31 a barrel, as a stronger-than-expected reading on inflation strengthened the dollar and increased the likelihood of higher interest rates, which would dull the demand for oil....but oil prices steadied in late trading despite an American Petroleum Institute report of another big build of US crude inventories, as chatter that the Biden administration would buy crude at $80/bbl to refill the SPR sent prices rebounding....however, oil prices softened in early trading Wednesday after the International Energy Agency raised its global demand outlook for the remainder of the year, citing soaring oil use for power generation and gas-to-oil switching across large economies in Asia and the European Union. but rallied late to settle $1.17 higher at $88.48 a barrel, buoyed in part by a report from Bloomberg that said the Biden administration might consider refilling the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve when crude prices dip below $80 a barrel... oil prices edged upwards in early Asian trade on Thursday, as supply concerns and a looming rail stoppage in the US supported markets, but then tumbled $3.38 or nearly 4% to a one-week low of $85.10 a barrel on a tentative agreement to avert a rail strike, and on expectations for weaker global demand and continued U.S. dollar strength ahead of a potentially large interest rate increase...oil prices moved mixed early Friday amid persistent fears that higher interest rates from the Fed would push the U.S. economy into a recession, denting demand growth for oil and petroleum products and settled the session a penny higher at $85.11 a barrel as a spill at Iraq's Basra oil terminal appeared likely to constrain crude supply, but still finished down 1.9% from the prior week, as mounting evidence of an economic slowdown overshadowed supply-risk concerns...

​Meanwhile, natural gas prices finished lower for a fourth straight week on a bearish storage report and on the belief that a railroad strike had been averted....after falling 9.0% to $7.996 per mmBTU last week on record production and on moderating weather forecasts, the contract price of US natural gas for October delivery advanced for a third consecutive session on Monday, propelled by festering worries about the inadequacy of gas stored for winter. and settled 25.3 cents higher at $8.249 per mmBTU, buoyed by technical trading and slightly lower production estimates for the week...natural gas prices edged higher again on Tuesday on worries that a possible railroad strike would disrupt coal supplies to power plants, which would force generators to burn more gas to produce electricity, and settled 3.5 cents higher at $8.284 per mmBTU...the October gas contract price rose for a fifth straight day on Wednesday, boosted by late-season heat, domestic storage concerns and a robust global demand for U.S. LNG exports, and spiked 83.0 cents or 10% on the day to settle at $9.114 per mmBTU, the highest price in two weeks...however, natural gas prices reversed course on Thursday and tumbled 79 cents, or 9%, to $8.324 per mmBTU, on a bigger-than-expected increase in inventories and on reports of a deal that would avert a rail strike....natural gas prices continued falling on Friday as ​gas​field output held near a record high and as global gas prices slumped and settled down 56.0 cents on the day at $7.764 per mmBTU, and thus ended 2.9% lower on the week...

The EIA's natural gas storage report for the week ending September 9th indicated that the amount of working natural gas held in underground storage in the US rose by 77 billion cubic feet to 2,771 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our gas supplies 223 billion cubic feet, or 7.4% below the 2,916 billion cubic feet that were in storage on September 9th of last year, and 354 billion cubic feet, or 11.3% below the five-year average of 3,125 billion cubic feet of natural gas that were in storage as of the 9th of September over the most recent five years....the 77 billion cubic foot injection into US natural gas working storage for the cited week was on the high side of forecasts from analysts that called for an injection between 62 and 80 billion cubic feet, but was close to the 78 billion cubic feet that were added to natural gas storage during the corresponding week of 2021, while a bit less than the average injection of 82 billion cubic feet of natural gas that had typically been added to our natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years....    

The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending September 9th showed that despite a big drop in our oil imports, a record draw of oil from our SPR meant we had unused oil left to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 2nd time time in 5 weeks, and for the 18th time in the past 42 weeks....Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 988,000 barrels per day to average 5,792,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 824,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 82,000 barrels per day to average 3,515,000 barrels per day, which meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to an import average of 2,277,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending September 9th, 1,070,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week. Over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly unchanged at 12,100,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 14,377,000 barrels per day during the September 9th reporting week…

Meanwhile, US oil refineries reported they were processing an average of 16,022,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 9th, an average of 94,000 more barrels per day than the amount of oil than our refineries processed during the prior week, while over the same period the EIA’s surveys indicated that a net average of 853,000 barrels of oil per day were being pulled out of the supplies of oil stored in the US. So, based on that reported & estimated data, the crude oil figures from the EIA for the week ending September 9th appear to indicate that our total working supply of oil from net imports, from oilfield production, and from storage was 792,000 barrels per day less than what our oil refineries reported they used during the week. To account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+792,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet in order to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and for the consumption of it balance out, a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as “unaccounted for crude oil”, thus suggesting there must have been an omission or error of that magnitude in this week’s oil supply & demand figures that we have just transcribed... however, since most everyone treats these weekly EIA reports as gospel, and since these figures often drive oil pricing, and hence decisions to drill or complete oil wells, we’ll continue to report this data just as it's published, and just as it's watched & believed to be reasonably accurate by most everyone in the industry...(for more on how this weekly oil data is gathered, and the possible reasons for that “unaccounted for” oil, see this EIA explainer)….

This week's 853,000 barrel per day decrease in our overall crude oil inventories left our oil supplies at 863,690,000 barrels at the end of the week, which is our lowest total oil inventory level since April 11th, 2003, and therefore at a new 19 year low.….Our oil inventories decreased this week as 349,000 barrels per day were being added to our commercially available stocks of crude oil while a record 1,202,000 barrels per day of oil were being pulled out of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That draw on the SPR was another installment of the emergency withdrawal under Biden's "Plan to Respond to Putin’s Price Hike at the Pump" (sic), that was intended to supply 1,000,000 barrels of oil per day to commercial interests over a six month period up to the midterm elections in November, in the hope of keeping gasoline and diesel fuel prices from rising, at least up until then, and was apparently up by 864,000 barrels per day from two weeks ago because the administration is now attempting to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to manipulate prices on a weekly basis....Including the administration's initial 50,000,000 million barrel SPR release earlier this year, their subsequent 30,000,000 barrel release, and other withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve under recent release programs, a total of 222,092,000 barrels of oil have now been removed from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the past 26 months, and as a result the 434,057,000 barrels of oil still remaining in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now the lowest since October 26th, 1984, or at a 37 1/2 year low, as repeated tapping of our emergency supplies for non-emergencies or to pay for other programs had already drained those supplies considerably over the past dozen years, even before the Biden administration's SPR releases. Now the total 180,000,000 barrel drawdown expected during the current six month release program to November will remove almost a third of what remained in the SPR when the program started, and leave us with what would be less than a 20 day supply of oil at today's consumption rate...

Further details from the weekly Petroleum Status Report (pdf) indicate that the 4 week average of our oil imports rose to an average of 6,340,000 barrels per day last week, which was 4.6% more than the 6,064,000 barrel per day average that we were importing over the same four-week period last year. This week’s crude oil production was reported to be unchanged at 12,100,000 barrels per day because the EIA's rounded estimate of the output from wells in the lower 48 states was unchanged at 11,700,000 barrels per day, while Alaska’s oil production was 4,000 barrels per day higher at 434,000 barrels per day but had no impact on the final rounded national total. US crude oil production had reached a pre-pandemic high of 13,100,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13th 2020, so this week’s reported oil production figure was 7.6% below that of our pre-pandemic production peak, but was 24.7% above the pandemic low of 9,700,000 barrels per day that US oil production had fallen to during the third week of February of 2021...

US oil refineries were operating at 91.5% of their capacity while using those 16,022,000 barrels of crude per day during the week ending September 9th, up from their 90.9% utilization rate during the prior week, but a refinery utilization rate that's a bit below the normal range for the week after Labor Day. The 16,022,000 barrels per day of oil that were refined this week were 11.4% more than the 14,387,000 barrels of crude that were being processed daily during week ending September 10th of 2021 (after Hurricane Ida), but 4.1% less than the 16,707,000 barrels that were being refined during the prepandemic week ending September 13th, 2019, when our refinery utilization was at 91.2%, also on the low side of the normal range for early September...

Despite the increase in the amount of oil being refined this week, the gasoline output from our refineries was lower, decreasing by 399,000 barrels per day to 9,453,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 9th, after our gasoline output had increased by 74,000 barrels per day during the prior week. This week’s gasoline production was still 2.0% more than the 9,271,000 barrels of gasoline that were being produced daily over the same week of last year, and virtually matched the gasoline production of 9,451,000 barrels per day during the week ending September 13th, 2019, ie, during the year before the pandemic impacted US gasoline output. At the same time, our refineries’ production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 5,019,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had increased by 112,000 barrels per day during the prior week. With that ​increase, our distillates output was 6.7% more than the hurricane impacted 4,706,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 10th of 2021, but 1.8% less than the 5,109,000 barrels of distillates that were being produced daily during the week ending September 13th 2019...

With the​ decrease in our gasoline production, our supplies of gasoline in storage at the end of the week fell for the 6th time in 8 weeks; and for the 25th time out of the past thirty-two weeks, decreasing by 1,768,000 barrels to a 42 week low of 213,040,000 barrels during the week ending September 9th, after our gasoline inventories had increased by 333,000 barrels during the prior week. Our gasoline supplies fell this week even though the amount of gasoline supplied to US users fell by 233,000 barrels per day to 8,494,000 barrels per day, because our imports of gasoline fell by 509,000 barrels per day to 522,000 barrels per day, while our exports of gasoline fell by 106,000 barrels per day to 1,070,000 barrels per day.   but even after 25 gasoline inventory drawdowns over the past 32 weeks, our gasoline supplies were just 2.3% lower than last September 10th's gasoline inventories of 218,142,000 barrels, and about ​only ​2% below the five year average of our gasoline supplies for this time of the year…

Even after the decrease in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels increased for the 11th time in 17 weeks and for the 21st time in the past year, rising by 4.219,000 barrels to 116,020,000 barrels during the week ending September 9th, after our distillates supplies had increased by 95,000 barrels during the prior week. Our distillates supplies rose by their most this year this week because the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, decreased by 492,000 barrels per day to a 21 month low of 3,132,000 barrels per day, and because our exports of distillates fell by 156,000 barrels per day to 1,409,000 barrels per day, while our imports of distillates fell by 47,000 barrels per day to 125,000 barrels per day.. But after forty-eight inventory withdrawals over the past seventy-three weeks, our distillate supplies at the end of the week were 12.0% below the 133,586,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on September 10th of 2021, and about 21% below the five year average of distillates inventories, for this time of the year...

Meanwhile, with the record withdrawal of crude from the SPR, our commercial supplies of crude oil in storage rose for the 11th time in 21 weeks and for the 22nd time in the past year, increasing by 2,442,000 barrels over the week, from 427,191,000 barrels on September 2nd to 429,633,000 barrels on September 9th, after our commercial crude supplies had increased by 8.845,000 barrels over the prior week. After those increases, our commercial crude oil inventories were about 2% below the most recent five-year average of crude oil supplies for this time of year, and about 28% above the average of our crude oil stocks as of the second weekend of September over the 5 years at the beginning of the past decade, with the disparity between those comparisons arising because it wasn’t until early 2015 that our oil inventories first topped 400 million barrels. And even though our commercial crude oil inventories had jumped to record highs during the Covid lockdowns of the Spring of 2020, and then jumped again after last year's winter storm Uri froze off US Gulf Coast refining, our commercial crude supplies as of this September 9th were 2.9% more than the 417,445,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on September 10th of 2021, and were 13.4% less than the 496,045,000 barrels of oil that we had in storage on September 11th of 2020, and 3.0% more than the 417,126,000 barrels of oil we had in commercial storage on September 13th of 2019…

Lastly, with our inventories of crude oil and our supplies of all products made from oil near multi-year lows over the most recent months, we are continuing to watch the total of all U.S. Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, including those in the SPR. With the increases we've already noted, the EIA's data shows that the total of our oil and oil product inventories, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and those held by the oil industry, and thus including everything from gasoline and jet fuel to propane/propylene and residual fuel oil, fell by 2,943,000 barrels this week, from 1,667,619,000 barrels on September 2nd to 1,664,676,000 barrels on September 9th, after our total inventories had risen by 3,680,000 barrels during the prior week. That left our total liquids inventories down by 123,757,814,000 barrels over the first 34 weeks of this year, and less than a million barrels from a 13 1/2 year low...  

OPEC's Report on Global Oil for August

Tuesday of this week saw the release of OPEC's September Oil Market Report, which includes the details on OPEC's & global oil data for August, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation after China had briefly reopened ​their cities ​after ​their most restrictive Covid lockdowns, while oil supplies from Russia ​continued to be constrained by Western sanctions, and while at the same time OPEC and aligned oil producers agreed to increase their output by the usual 400,000​+​* barrels per day for a thirteenth consecutive month, ie the 13th such increase from the previously agreed to July 2021 level, and to also increment that increase with half of the ​400,000+ bpd ​production increase they had originally scheduled for September...that​ September​ was the sixth production and last quota policy reset that they had made over the past twenty-​eight months, all by way of responding to the pandemic-related demand slowdown and subsequent irregular recovery, and with August's production increase, the cartel's output should be back to the level it was at before the Covid production cuts began....note that with the course and impact of the Ukraine war and the future course of the Covid pandemic largely unknown, the demand projections made in this report will have a much greater degree of uncertainty than they would have during normal, more stable times..

The first table from this month's report that we'll review is from the page numbered 50 of this month's report (pdf page 60), and it shows oil production in thousands of barrels per day for each of the current OPEC members over the recent years, quarters and months, as the column headings below indicate...for all their official production measurements, OPEC has used an average of production estimates by six "secondary sources", namely the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil-pricing agencies Platts and Argus, ‎the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the oil consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and the industry newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, as a means of impartially adjudicating whether their output quotas and production cuts are being met, to thereby avert any potential disputes that could arise if each member reported their own figures....as of the June report, the consultancy Wood Mackenzie and the research and intelligence firm Rystad Energy were also added to OPEC's secondary sources.....

As we can see on the bottom line of the above table, OPEC's oil output increased by 618,000 barrels per day to 29,651,000 barrels per day during July, up from their revised June production total that averaged 28,482,000 barrels per day....however, that July output figure was originally reported as 28,896,000 barrels per day, which therefore means that OPEC's June production was revised 137,000 barrels per day higher with this report, and hence OPEC's July production was, in effect, 788,000 barrels per day higher than the previously reported OPEC production figure (for your reference, here is a copy of the table of the official June OPEC output figures as reported a month ago, before this month's revision)...

According to the agreement reached between OPEC and the other oil producers at their Ministerial Meeting on July 18th, 2021, the oil producers party to that agreement were to raise their output by a total of 400,000 barrels per day each month through December 2021, (later bumped up to 432,000 bpd) which was subsequently renewed at monthly meetings to include further 400,000+ barrel per day production increases in January, February, March, April, May, &​ ​June​ of 2022, and which would indicate an increase of 254,000 barrels per day each month from the OPEC members listed above, (later bumped up to 286,000 barrels per day) with the rest of the current 432,000 barrel per day cartel increase to supplied by other aligned oil producers. including Russia...with the OPEC agreement reached on June 3rd, they agreed to further increase their output for July and August each by half of the 432,000 barrels per day they had scheduled as an increase in September...hence, the August production increase for the extended cartel was to expected to be 648,000 barrels per day, with 429,000 barrels of that coming from OPEC...hence, OPEC's actual August increase of 618,000 barrels per day was considerably more than the increase they had commited to....however, the 426,000 barrel per day production increase in Libya, coming after a cessation of hostilities between waring factions, was the sole reason that OPEC managed to beet their quota for the month, and several other OPEC members continued to be well short of what they were expected to produce, as we'll see in the next table...

The adjacent table was originally included as a downloadable attachment to the press release following the 30th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on June 30, 2022, which set OPEC's and other aligned oil producers' production quotas for August... since war torn Libya and US sanctioned producers Iran and Venezuela were exempt from the production cuts imposed by the joint agreement that governs the output of the other OPEC producers, they are not shown in this list, and OPEC's quota excluding them is aggregated under the total listed for the 'OPEC 10', which you can see was expected to be at 26,689,000 barrels per day in August....therefore, the 25,278,000 barrels those 10 OPEC members actually produced in August were 1,411,000 barrels per day short of what they were expected to produce during the month, with Nigeria and Angola accounting for a large part of this month's shortfall, while only Kuwait and Gabon were able to produce what was expected of them...

+ + +

* Recall that the original 2020 oil producer's agreement was to jointly cut their oil production by 23%, or by 9.7 million barrels per day, from an October 2018 baseline for just two months early in the pandemic, during May and June of 2020, but that initial 9.7 million bpd production cut agreement was extended to include July 2020 at a meeting between OPEC and other producers on June 6th, 2020....then, in a subsequent meeting in early July of that year, OPEC and the other oil producers agreed to ease their deep supply cuts by 2 million barrels per day to 7.7 million barrels per day for August 2020 and subsequent months, which thus became the agreement that governed OPEC's output for the rest of 2020...the OPEC+ agreement for their January 2021 production, which was later extended to include February and March and then April's output, was to further ease their supply cuts by 500,000 barrels per day to a reduction of 7.2 million barrels per day from that original October 2018 baseline...then, during a meeting on April 1st of last year, OPEC and the other oil producers that are aligned with them agreed to incrementally adjust their oil production higher for the following three months by a pre-set amount for each country, thus extending their joint output cut agreement through July 2021....production levels for August and the following months of last year were to be determined by a July 1st OPEC meeting, but that meeting was adjourned on July 2nd due to a dispute between the UAE and the Saudis over the 2018 reference production levels on which the cuts are based, and a subsequent attempt to restart that meeting on July 5th was called off....so it wasn't until July 18th 2021 that a tentative compromise addressing August 2021's output quotas was worked out, allowing oil producers in aggregate to increase their production by 400,000 barrels per day in August, and again by that amount in each of the following months, and also to boost reference production levels for the UAE, the Saudis, Iraq and Kuwait beginning in April 2022, and which made the cartel's effective monthly production increase 432,000 barrels per day since that time....OPEC and other producers then agreed to increase their production in January 2022 by a further 400,000 barrels per day in a meeting concluded on the 2nd of December, 2021, and reaffirmed their intention to continue that policy with another 400,000 barrel per day increase in February at a meeting concluded January 4, 2022, and then agreed to stick to that 400,000 bpd oil output increase in March, despite pressure from the US to raise output more quickly, at a meeting on February 2nd....then, at a meeting on March 2nd, OPEC and its oil-producing allies, which included Russia, decided to hold their production increase at that level thru April in an OPEC+ meeting that only lasted 13 minutes, their shortest meeting ever...then on March 31, OPEC and aligned producers agreed to reaffirm the decisions of the prior Ministerial meetings and again limit their production increase for May to the agreed 400,000 barrels per day​ despite the Russian shortfall​, because "the current [oil market]volatility is not caused by fundamentals, but by ongoing geopolitical developments"...following that, in an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held on May 5th, they again "reaffirmed, reconfirmed, and reinterated" the decision of the July 18th 2021 meeting to increase production by 432,000 barrels per day in June...however, in a meeting held on June 2nd,they agreed to bring forward the 432,000 barrel per day increase they had already scheduled for September, with that increase to be split evenly between July and August...hence, the production quota increase for both July and August was set at 648,000 barrels per day, which would then leave each member's production back ​at the October 2018 baseline...

Hence OPEC arrived at the production quotas for August 2021 through July & Augst of this year after repeatedly readjusting the original 23%, or 9.7 million barrel per day production cut from the October 2018 baseline that they first agreed to for May and June 2020, first to a 7.7 million barrel per day output reduction from the baseline for the remainder of 2020, then to a 7.2 million barrel per day production cut from the baseline for the first four months of this year, which was subsequently raised to an 8.2 million barrel per day oil output reduction after the Saudis unilaterally committed to cut their own production by a million  barrels per day during the Covid surge of February, March, and then later during April of last year....under the agreement prior to the July 18th 2021 pact affecting the recent months since then, OPEC's production cut in April 2021 was set at 4,564,000 barrels per day below the October 2018 baseline, which was lowered to a cut of 3,650,000 barrels per day from the baseline with the subsequent comprehensive agreement, which thus set the July 2021 production quota for the "OPEC 10" at 23,033,000 barrels per day, with war torn Libya and US sanctioned producers Iran and Venezuela exempt from the production cuts imposed by that agreement....for OPEC and the other producers to increase their output by 400,000 barrels per day from that July 2021 level, each producer would be need to initially increase their production by just over 1% per month since that time...for OPEC alone, that meant a 254,000 barrel per day increase for each month from July 2021 to April 2022, at which time the incremental 32,000 barrels per day adjustment they arrived at in July 2021 kicked in....adding together those monthly quota increases since last July, when the quota was at 23,033,000 barrels per day, and then adding the 216,000 barrel per day brought forward from September's increase to July's and August's quotas, is how they arrived at the 26,689,000 barrels per day quota for OPEC for August that you see on the table above..

The next graphic from this month's report that we'll look at shows us both OPEC's and worldwide oil production monthly on the same graph, over the period from September 2020 to August 2022, and it comes from page 51 (pdf page 51) of OPEC's September Oil Market Report....on this graph, the cerulean blue bars represent OPEC's monthly oil production in millions of barrels per day as shown on the left scale, while the purple graph represents global oil production in millions of barrels per day, with the metrics for global output shown on the right scale....

After this month's 618,000 barrel per day increase in OPEC's production from their revised production of a month earlier, OPEC's preliminary estimate is that total global liquids production increased by a rounded 1,300,000 barrels per day to average 101.3 million barrels per day in August, a reported increase which came after July's total global output figure was apparently revised down by 600,000 barrels per day from the 100.6 million barrels per day of global oil output that was estimated for July a month ago, as non-OPEC oil production rose by a rounded 700,000 barrels per day in August after that downward revision, with 500,000 barrels per day of August's production growth coming from the OECD Americas, the OECD Europe, and "Other Eurasia", while oil production in Russia and ​in ​some other countries declined...

After that 1.3 million barrel per day increase in August's global output, the 101.3 million barrels of oil per day that were produced globally during the month were 5.98 million barrels per day, or 6.3% more than the revised 95.32 million barrels per day that were being produced globally in August a year ago, which was the third month after OPEC and their allied producers began their program of monthly production increases from the 7.2 million barrels per day production cut that had governed their output over the first four months of last year (see the September 2021 OPEC report (online pdf) for the originally reported August 2021 details)...with this month's increase in OPEC's output fairly large compared to the modest global increase, their August oil production of 29,651,000 barrels per day amounted to 29.3% of what was produced globally during the month, up from their revised 29.1% share of the global total in July, which had originally been reported at 28.7%, before this month's large revisions....OPEC's August 2021 production was reported at 26,762,000 barrels per day, which means that the 13 OPEC members who were part of OPEC last year produced 2,889,000 barrels per day, or 10.8% more barrels per day of oil this August than what they produced last August, when they accounted for 28.0% of global output...

With the increases in both OPECs and global oil output that we've seen in this report, the amount of oil being produced globally during the month was significantly more than the expected global demand, as this next table from the OPEC report will show us....

The above table came from page 27 of the August Oil Market Report (pdf page 37), and it shows regional and total oil demand estimates in millions of barrels per day for 2021 in the first column, and then OPEC's estimate of oil demand by region and globally quarterly over 2022 over the rest of the table...on the "Total world" line in the fourth column, we've circled in blue the figure that's relevant for August, which is their estimate of global oil demand during the third quarter of 2022....OPEC is estimating that during the 3rd quarter of this year, all oil consuming regions of the globe have used an average of 99.67 million barrels of oil per day, which is an downward revision of 260,000 barrels per day from their estimate 99.93 million barrels per day for 3rd quarter demand of a month ago (that revision is circled in green)...but as OPEC showed us in the oil supply section of this report and the summary supply graph above, OPEC and the rest of the world's oil producers were producing 101.3 million barrels per day during July, which would imply that there was a surplus of around 1,630,000 barrels per day of global oil production in August, when compared to the demand estimated for the month...

In addition to figuring that September oil surplus implied by this report, the downward revision of 600,000 barrels per day to July's global oil output that's implied in this report, combined with the 260,000 barrels per day downward revision to 3rd quarter demand that we've circled in green​,​ means that the 670,000 barrels per day global oil output surplus we had previously figured for July would now be revised to a surplus of 330,000 barrels per day....

However, note that in green we have circled an upward revision of 70,000 barrels per day to OPEC's previous estimates of second quarter demand...based on that upward revision to demand, our previous estimate that there was a surplus of 350,000 barrels per day in June would now be revised to a 280,000 barrels per day surplus, while the oil shortage of 60,000 barrels per day that we had previously figured for May would have to be revised to a shortage of 130,000 barrels per day, ​and finally, that the 340,000 barrels per day global oil output surplus we had previously figured for April would have to be revised to a surplus of 270,000 barrels per day... 

This Week's Rig Count

The number of drilling rigs running in the US rose for the second time in seven weeks, and for the 83rd time over the past 103 weeks during the week ending September 16th, but they're still 3.8% below the prepandemic rig count....Baker Hughes reported that the total count of rotary rigs drilling in the US increased by 4 to 763 rigs this past week, which was also 251 more rigs than the 512 rigs that were in use as of the September 10th report of 2021, but was 1,166 fewer rigs than the shale era high of 1,929 drilling rigs that were deployed on November 21st of 2014, a week before OPEC began to flood the global market with oil in an attempt to put US shale out of business….

The number of rigs drilling for oil increased by 8 to 599 oil rigs during the past week, after the number of rigs targeting oil had decreased by 5 during the prior week, and there are now 188 more oil rigs active now than were running a year ago, even as they amount to just 37.2% of the shale era high of 1609 rigs that were drilling for oil on October 10th, 2014, and as they are still down 12.3% from the prepandemic oil rig count….at the same time, the number of drilling rigs targeting natural gas bearing formations decreased by 4 to 162 natural gas rigs, which was still up by 62 natural gas rigs from the 100 natural gas rigs that were drilling during the same week a year ago, even as they were only 10.1% of the modern high of 1,606 rigs targeting natural gas that were deployed on September 7th, 2008….other than those rigs targeting oil and natural gas, Baker Hughes reports that two "miscellaneous" rigs continued drilling this week: a directional rig drilling to between 5,000 and 10,000 feet on the big island of Hawaii, and a vertical rig drilling more than 15,000 feet into a formation in Humboldt county Nevada that Baker Hughes doesn't track....a year ago, there were was only one such "miscellaneous" rig running...

The offshore rig count in the Gulf of Mexico was up by one to 14 rigs this week, with all of this week's Gulf rigs drilling for oil in Louisiana's offshore waters....that's in contrast to a year ago, when only 6 Gulf rigs had restarted in the wake of Hurricane Ida...in addition to rigs drilling in the Gulf, we still have an offshore directional rigs drilling to between 5,000 and 10,000 feet​ for natural gas in the Cook Inlet of Alaska​, while a year ago, there were two rigs drilling offshore from Alaska...

In addition to rigs running offshore, there are now four water based rigs drilling through inland bodies of water this week; the one added this week ​is a directional rig drilling to between 10,000 and 15,000 feet, inland in Galveston Bay. Texas; legacy inland waters rigs include a directional rig drilling for oil to between 5,000 and 10,000 feet in Cameron Parish, Louisiana; a directional rig targeting oil at a depth greater than 15,000 feet drilling through a lake on Grand Isle, Louisiana, and a directional rig drilling for oil in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, also at a depth greater than 15,000 feet...a year ago, there were was just one rig drilling on inland waters...

The count of active horizontal drilling rigs was up by 3 to 695 horizontal rigs this week, which was also 229 more rigs than the 466 horizontal rigs that were in use in the US on September 17th of last year, but just over half of the record 1,374 horizontal rigs that were drilling on November 21st of 2014....at the same time, the directional rig count was up by 2 to 45 directional rigs this week, and those were up by 28 from the 17 directional rigs that were operating during the same week a year ago…on the other hand, the vertical rig count was down by 1 to 23 vertical rigs this week, which was also down by 6 from the 29 vertical rigs that were in use on September 17th of 2021….

The details on this week’s changes in drilling activity by state and by major shale basin are shown in our screenshot below of that part of the rig count summary pdf from Baker Hughes that gives us those changes…the first table below shows weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major oil & gas producing states, and the table below that shows the weekly and year over year rig count changes for the major US geological oil and gas basins…in both tables, the first column shows the active rig count as of September 16th, the second column shows the change in the number of working rigs between last week’s count (September 9th) and this week’s (September 16th) count, the third column shows last week’s September 9th active rig count, the 4th column shows the change between the number of rigs running on Friday and the number running on the Friday before the same weekend of a year ago, and the 5th column shows the number of rigs that were drilling at the end of that reporting week a year ago, which in this week’s case was the 17th of September, 2021...

checking first the Rigs by State file at Baker Hughes for the changes in Texas Permian, we find that there were two oil rigs added in Texas Oil District 8, which covers the core Permian Delaware, and that there were three oil rigs added in Texas Oil District 8A, which covers the northernmost counties of the Permian Midland, but that there was an oil rig pulled out of Texas Oil District 7C, which includes the southernmost counties of the Permian Midland...hence, those changes indicate a 4 rig increase in the Texas Permian, and since the national Permian basin count was just up by 3 rigs, we can conclude that the rig pulled out of New Mexico had been drilling in the far west Permian Delaware....elsewhere in Texas, there was a rig added Texas Oil District 2, which would account for one of the two oil rigs added in the Eagle Ford shale, while there was a rig pulled out of Texas Oil District 4, which would account for the natural gas rig pulled out of the Eagle Ford....however, the Eagle Ford saw an increase of two oil rigs, which means a rig was pulled out of a basin not tracked by Baker Hughes in the same Texas oil district the other Eagle Ford oil rig was added in...in addition, there was a natural gas rig pulled out of the Barnett shale in Texas Oil District 5, while there was an oil rig added in the Barnett in Texas Oil District 9...note that the Texas rig count was up by 5 with the inland waters rig addition in Galveston Bay.....

in other states, the Louisiana rig count was up by one with the rig addition in the adjacent Gulf of Mexico, the North Dakota rig count was down by one with the removal of an oil rig from the Williston basin, ​and ​the Oklahoma count remained unchanged despite the addition of two oil rigs in the Cana Woodford because two rigs were concurrently pulled out of basins that Baker Hughes doesn't track at the same time...Oklahoma also saw a natural gas rig pulled out of the Arkoma Woodford, while an oil rig was added in that basin at the same time, thus leaving the Arkoma Woodford unchanged...th​e last natural gas rig removal we haven't accounted for came out of a basin not tracked by Baker Hughes, which could have also been one of those pulled out elsewhere in Oklahoma...

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note: there’s more here..